July CPI will determine bitcoin's fate: why August 12 is the key date of the month
The release of U.S. inflation data for July, scheduled for August 12, will be the main trigger for the cryptocurrency market this month. This report will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise the key interest rate in September. This decision directly determines whether Bitcoin can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000 or whether we will see a new round of correction.
The labor market has already sent an alarming signal. Fresh employment statistics for July came in noticeably worse than forecasts: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, while growth had been expected. Unemployment meanwhile fell to 4.1%, but the key point is the massive revision of data for previous months. The combined deterioration in figures for May and June amounted to approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained trend of a cooling labor market. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41% after the report's release.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of approximately 2.2%. However, there is an important nuance: the oil factor is becoming unstable again. After a sharp slowdown in June, driven by falling gasoline prices, by July the fuel component began to pressure the figures once more.
I see three possible scenarios for how events unfold:
• Data below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, and the technology sector and cryptocurrencies will react most strongly — this is a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
• A reading in line with expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture; the chances of a September hike will remain balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to tightening expectations, yields will rise, and expensive tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.
The historical correlation here is clear. When data came in below forecasts in February, April, and July, markets received support: after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than one percent, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, yields rose and cryptocurrencies came under pressure.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of forces for the week
Middle East. The geopolitical backdrop remains tense. Trump continues to talk about negotiations; Iran denies them. Tehran is working with Oman on a plan for the phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz with the introduction of transit fees, but the U.S. opposes expanding Iranian control over shipping. Industry experts consider the scheme nearly unworkable in its current form: Iran demands that sanctions be lifted and assets unfrozen first, while Washington insists on the reverse sequence. Oil has already responded with gains: Brent has returned to the $83 area, and WTI is consolidating above $75.
SpaceX. Shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, although around 911 million unlocked shares hit the market — more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason for the rebound is a pre-priced expectation of the sell-off, short covering, and a strong quarterly report with revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures totaled approximately $18.4 billion, of which about $15.8 billion went to AI, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. Starlink provides the main stable cash flow. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled 70 days after the IPO.
Bitcoin. I interpret the current rebound as a false rally: liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. My long from the $58,000 area has been fully closed, and I am looking for a short entry point in the $65,000 zone, expecting a trigger — momentum stall, resistance formation, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, before the inflation data release, I forecast elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.
My conclusion: August 12 is not just another statistical release but a moment of truth for all risk appetite. If inflation surprises to the downside, Bitcoin will get a chance to surge toward $70,000. But if price pressure accelerates — get ready for a test of $60,000. A sensible strategy now is to avoid excessive leverage and wait for a clear signal.