Inflation in the US: why the August 12 report will be fateful for bitcoin
US inflation data for July, scheduled for release on August 12, will be a key trigger for the market. This report will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September. The outcome of this decision directly affects whether Bitcoin can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000.
Labor market weakness has already adjusted investor expectations. The July employment report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. However, a far more alarming signal was the revision of May and June data—a cumulative deterioration of about 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained cooling of the economy, which has significantly reduced the probability of a September rate hike—from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for the market
Ahead of the release, the consensus forecast for annual inflation is around 3.4%, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, there are additional risks related to oil price volatility. I see three possible scenarios:
• Below forecast. Bond yields will decline, and the technology sector and cryptocurrencies will react most strongly—this is a positive signal for risk assets.
• In line with expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture; the odds of a September hike will remain balanced.
• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to tightening expectations, yields will rise, and expensive tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.
The historical correlation is obvious: when inflation came in below forecasts (as in February, April, and July), markets rose—Nasdaq gained more than one percent, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when data exceeded expectations, yields surged and cryptocurrencies came under pressure. For the regulator, the worst combination is a weak labor market with high inflation: raising rates is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring price growth is impossible.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of power
The geopolitical backdrop continues to fuel the oil market. Brent has returned to $83, while WTI is consolidating above $75. Escalation in the Middle East and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz add risks, and on a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position targeting an 8–10% move.
SpaceX shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, despite the release of about 911 million unlocked shares—more than the original free float. The reason is pre-priced sell-off expectations, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures of $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion went to AI, leave free cash flow negative. I see potential for a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
For Bitcoin, I interpret the current bounce as a false rally: liquidity accumulation at the top, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already closed my long position from $58,000 and am considering a short in the $65,000 area, expecting momentum to stall and confirmation of seller pressure. Until the inflation data release, volatility will be elevated in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with a stronger effect on the equity market.
My professional conclusion: the August 12 report is not just statistics but a crossroads for all risk appetite. If inflation surprises to the downside, Bitcoin will have a real chance to break toward $70,000. Otherwise, we face a deep correction, and current levels will be only an intermediate stop.