August 12 — a Rubicon for Bitcoin: why the US inflation report will decide the fate of the market
The key macroeconomic trigger for August is the release of U.S. inflation data for July, scheduled for the 12th. This report will be the decisive factor for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, which will directly determine whether Bitcoin can break through the psychologically important level of $70,000.
Ahead of this date, the market is in a state of heightened uncertainty. Fresh labor market statistics have adjusted investor expectations. The July report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, although the consensus forecast had predicted growth. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but the revision of data for May and June was extremely negative—the cumulative deterioration amounted to approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained trend toward a cooling labor market.
The market reaction was immediate: the probability of a rate hike in September collapsed from 55% to 41% right after the employment data was published. Nevertheless, the final verdict remains with the inflation report.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus suggests that annual inflation will be around 3.4% with a core reading of approximately 2.2%. Depending on the actual figures, I see three possible scenarios for how events may unfold:
• Inflation below forecast. Bond yields will move lower, which would be a powerful driver for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. In this case, Bitcoin would get a chance for a confident surge.
• A reading in line with expectations (around 3.4%). The market will likely react with short-term volatility without changing the overall picture. The odds of a September rate hike will remain balanced.
• Inflation accelerating to 3.5–3.6% and above. This would bring expectations of policy tightening back to the market, yields would rise, and both expensive technology stocks and cryptocurrencies would come under pressure.
The historical correlation here is clearly visible. In February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts, which supported markets: after the July report, the Nasdaq rose by more than one percent, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, we saw rising yields and increased pressure on the crypto market.
The most difficult combination for the Fed is a weak labor market combined with high inflation. Raising rates in such a situation is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring price growth is impossible. The base scenario assumes that the data will match expectations, but the market will read it negatively, since removing the threat of a rate hike requires inflation to decline in both August and September.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of power for the week
The geopolitical factor also remains in play. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate: Iran and Oman are discussing a phased opening with a transit fee, but the U.S. opposes expanding Iranian control. Oil has already reacted with gains: Brent returned to $83, WTI is consolidating above $75.
Special attention deserves the situation with SpaceX shares. After a two-day decline, the stock sharply rebounded, despite the release of about 911 million unlocked shares—more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason is pre-priced expectations of a sell-off, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. At the same time, capital expenditures amount to about $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion went to AI, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. The main stable cash flow is provided by Starlink. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled 70 days after the IPO.
As for Bitcoin, I view the current bounce as a false rally. Accumulation of liquidity from above, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and lower under strong pressure—that is my base scenario. I have already fully closed my long position from the $58,000 area and am looking for a short entry point in the $65,000 region, expecting a trigger in the form of momentum stalling, resistance formation, and confirmation of seller pressure.
My conclusion: from Monday through Wednesday, up until the inflation data release, one should prepare for elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the stock market. August 12 is not just a date on the calendar but a moment of truth for the entire spectrum of risky assets.