Crypto news

The entire week on the crypto market will revolve around one number — the July U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on August 12. This report will be the trigger that determines whether Bitcoin can hold above the $70,000 mark or whether we will see another wave of downward correction. This is not just another piece of macro data — it is a moment of truth for Fed monetary policy and, consequently, for all risk assets.

The labor market has cracked

The starting point for the nervousness was Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement that if inflation accelerates, a September rate hike is almost guaranteed. However, fresh employment data has thrown this scenario into disarray. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had expected growth. Unemployment meanwhile fell to 4.1%, but the main signal is the massive revision of previous months: May and June together worsened the figures by approximately 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a steady cooling.

The market reaction was swift: the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41%. This has created intrigue: now all eyes are on the CPI. The consensus forecast for inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of roughly 2.2%. But there is a hidden risk here — the oil factor. The sharp slowdown in gasoline prices in June provided a temporary lull, but by July the fuel factor became unstable again, which could distort the final figures.

Three scenarios for Bitcoin

I see three key possible outcomes after the report's release:

• Inflation below forecast. Bond yields will fall, and the most sensitive to this will be the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, this would be a powerful catalyst for a surge above $70,000.

• The figure within expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. The odds of a September hike will remain balanced, and Bitcoin will continue to consolidate.

• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market will return to tightening expectations, yields will rise, and both tech giants and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure. In this case, Bitcoin risks testing the $60,000 zone and below.

The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market combined with high inflation. Raising rates in such a situation is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible. Historically, the correlation is clear: in February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts and supported markets, while on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, leading to higher yields and pressure on crypto assets.

My view on the balance of power

The base case is that the data will match expectations, but the market will read it negatively, since removing the threat of a rate hike requires sustained inflation declines in both August and September. At the same time, I view the current Bitcoin bounce as a false rally: liquidity accumulation at the top, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 under strong pressure. The $65,000 zone looks attractive for opening short positions, but only if a halt in momentum and the formation of resistance are confirmed.

Overall, ahead of Wednesday's data release, I expect elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market. August 12 is not just a date on the calendar but a watershed that will determine the trend for the coming weeks.