Inflation trigger: why the August 12 report will determine bitcoin's fate in September
There is only one truly significant macroeconomic release left this week — the publication of July inflation data in the United States, scheduled for August 12. These figures will be the decisive argument for the Federal Reserve in choosing the direction of monetary policy at the September meeting. The question is stark: will Bitcoin finally manage to hold above the $70,000 mark, or is the market facing another wave of correction?
The labor market has already adjusted investor expectations. A weak employment report noticeably cooled appetites for a rate hike, but the final verdict will come from consumer price statistics. July jobs data proved disappointing: the economy lost 23,000 positions instead of the expected gain, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. A far more alarming signal was the revision of May and June data — the overall picture worsened by roughly 103,000 jobs. This is no longer a one-off glitch but a sustained cooling trend. Unsurprisingly, the probability of a September rate hike collapsed from 55% to 41% immediately after the release.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. However, the key risk is tied to the oil factor: June's slowdown in gasoline prices gave way to instability in July, which could deliver an unpleasant surprise.
I see three possible developments. If the data comes in below forecasts, bond yields will fall, providing a powerful catalyst for the tech sector and cryptocurrencies. If it matches expectations — around 3.4% — the market will face short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. But if it accelerates to 3.5-3.6% or higher, a return to hawkish sentiment will begin: yields will rise, putting pressure on both growth stocks and digital assets.
Historical correlation works flawlessly here. In February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts, supporting markets — after the July report, Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin jumped from $62,000-63,000 above $64,000. Conversely, on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, triggering a rise in yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies. The base case is a match with the forecast, but the market could read it negatively, since removing the threat of a rate hike requires sustained inflation declines in both August and September.
Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the balance of power
The geopolitical backdrop continues to add fuel to the fire. Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz are stalling: Tehran insists on a phased opening with transit fees, while Washington demands the reverse sequence. Brent has already returned to the $83 area, and WTI is consolidating above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position targeting an 8-10% move.
SpaceX deserves special attention. Shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, despite the release of around 911 million unlocked shares — more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason is simple: pre-priced sell-off expectations, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures of $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion went to AI, leave free cash flow negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. Only Starlink provides stable cash flow. The next tranche of unlocks is scheduled in 70 days — a logical point for a short targeting a 10-15% correction into the $108-114 zone.
As for Bitcoin, I interpret the current bounce as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation above, a return of local confidence, and then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my position from $58,000 and am eyeing a short in the $65,000 area. The trigger will be a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. Until the inflation data release on Wednesday, I expect heightened volatility — in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the stock market showing it more strongly.
My verdict: August 12 is not just another date on the calendar but a moment of truth for all risk appetite. If inflation surprises to the downside, Bitcoin will have a real chance to attack $70,000. Otherwise, the market faces a prolonged correction, and current levels will be merely an intermediate stop on the way down.