BIP-110 fork has fallen 300 blocks behind the Bitcoin mainnet: difficulty is not decreasing
The BIP-110 branch, which split off from the Bitcoin mainnet, is showing a critical lag behind the main chain, exceeding 300 blocks. This is not just a technical glitch, but a natural result of inherited mining difficulty, which stands at 127.48 trillion. The fork cannot lower this figure until it completes a full cycle of 2,016 blocks, i.e., reaches height #963,647.
The problem is compounded by the fact that the branch's current hash rate is only a fraction of a percent of the main chain's computational power. This is precisely what creates the enormous time gap: estimates range from 350 days to 25 years—depending on what share of the hash rate is factored into the model. At such low power, the process could drag on for decades, calling into question the viability of this fork as an independent network.
To grasp the scale: under normal conditions, the Bitcoin network completes a period of 2,016 blocks in about two weeks. Here, however, at the current level of miner participation, this process stretches to absurd lengths. This is a classic example of how a hard fork that fails to secure sufficient support from mining pools falls into a "difficulty trap"—a state from which escape is either extremely slow or entirely impossible without external intervention.
My conclusion as an analyst: the BIP-110 branch will most likely face gradual network degradation. If there is no sharp influx of hash rate in the coming months, the fork risks becoming a "dead chain"—an example of how a technically sound idea shatters against the harsh reality of mining economics. Investors and asset holders on this branch should reassess their risks.