Foreign capital returns: non-residents from friendly jurisdictions set a record for purchases of Russian stocks
In July, a landmark event occurred on the Russian stock market that many analysts had been waiting for for years. Non-resident investors from friendly countries, for the first time in a long period, acted as net buyers rather than sellers. Their net purchases reached 15.3 billion rubles — the highest figure since November 2020. The shift in role from seller to buyer is a powerful signal that cannot be ignored.
The term "net" here is fundamental: it refers to the difference between the volume of securities acquired and sold. Previously, over several years, non-residents had steadily reduced their investments in Russian assets, creating constant pressure on the market. Now the trend has reversed, indicating a reassessment of strategies by major foreign players.
Who was behind the trades
An analysis of the trading structure shows that retail investors became the main net buyers. Individuals purchased shares worth 24.4 billion rubles, significantly outpacing all other market participants in terms of net purchase volume. This confirms a steady trend of increasing activity among private capital, which continues to fuel demand.
On the other hand, non-credit financial organizations acted as the main sellers. They sold shares worth 37.9 billion rubles — a record sales volume for this category since 2020. Systemically important banks also actively reduced their positions, selling securities worth 22.7 billion rubles and adding liquidity to the market.
The regulator noted the overall trading backdrop: volatility in most segments decreased or remained at the level of the previous month. The ruble continued to weaken, but at a slower pace than before. OFZ yields moved in different directions: they rose at the short end of the curve and fell at the long end.
Returns: bitcoin out of competition
Special attention deserves the comparative returns of instruments for July. The absolute leader was the cryptocurrency bitcoin (BTC) with a result of +10.1%, surpassing the performance of any Russian sector. Among Russian industries, the strongest growth was seen in chemical production (+7.9%), transport (+5.5%), construction (+4.9%), and electric power (+4.0%).
Retail (+3.6%) and currency deposits also showed good results: from +2.6% for the euro to +3.1% for the yuan. In the middle of the list were corporate bonds, the IT sector (+2.2%), and OFZs (+2.0%). Gold brought +1.5%. The worst performers for the month were subordinated bonds (-0.9%), the Moscow Exchange index (-1.2%), and the metals and mining sector, which became the obvious outsider with a result of -6.1%.
My view: The return of non-residents is a positive but still cautious signal. The volume of 15.3 billion rubles is not comparable to the scale of sell-offs in previous years, but the very fact of a trend reversal is important. Combined with high retail activity, this creates a more sustainable base for the market. But we should not forget: as long as the metals and mining sector, the traditional locomotive of the index, shows weakness, overall growth will be limited.