Foreigners from friendly jurisdictions made a record surge in the Russian stock market: net purchases reached 15.3 billion rubles
For the first time in a long period, non-residents from friendly countries acted as net buyers of Russian stocks. In July, their net purchases reached 15.3 billion rubles — the highest figure since November 2020.
The shift in the direction of capital flows became the key event of the month. Previously, this category of investors systematically acted as net sellers, but now we are witnessing a trend reversal. The term "net" is critically important here: it refers to the difference between the volumes of securities purchased and sold.
Structure of supply and demand
An analysis of flows shows that retail investors were the main buyers. Private individuals purchased stocks worth 24.4 billion rubles, significantly outpacing all other trading participants in terms of net purchase volume. This confirms a sustained trend: individuals continue to be the main driving force of demand in the Russian stock market.
On the other hand, non-credit financial organizations were the main sellers. They sold stocks worth 37.9 billion rubles — a record volume for this category since 2020. Systemically important banks also actively reduced their positions, selling securities worth 22.7 billion rubles and increasing supply in the market.
The regulator notes the overall backdrop: volatility in most segments declined or remained at previous levels, the ruble continued to weaken, but at a slower pace. OFZ yields moved in different directions: they rose at the short end of the curve and fell at the long end.
Instrument returns: bitcoin out of competition
July statistics present an interesting picture. The absolute leader in returns was the cryptocurrency bitcoin (BTC) — up 10.1%, exceeding the performance of any Russian sector. Among Russian industries, the strongest growth was seen in chemical production (7.9%), transport (5.5%), construction (4.9%), and electric power (4.0%).
Retail (3.6%) and currency deposits — from 2.6% in euros to 3.1% in yen — also showed decent results. In the middle of the list were corporate bonds, the IT sector (2.2%), and OFZs (2.0%), while gold brought 1.5%. The outsiders were substitute bonds (minus 0.9%), the Moscow Exchange index (minus 1.2%), and the metals and mining segment with a result of minus 6.1%.
My view: The current inflow of non-resident funds is a significant signal, but its scale should not be overestimated. 15.3 billion rubles is a drop in the ocean compared to the volumes that left the market in previous years. However, the very fact of the reversal could serve as a trigger for further restoration of foreign investor confidence, especially against the backdrop of growing cryptocurrency returns, which are increasingly being considered as an alternative asset class.