Foreign capital is returning: non-residents from friendly countries set a record for purchases of Russian stocks
In July, a landmark event occurred on the Russian stock market that could signal a shift in the long-term trend. Non-resident investors from friendly jurisdictions acted as net buyers for the first time in a long period, purchasing shares worth 15.3 billion rubles. This is the highest figure since November 2020, making the event not just a statistical detail, but a marker of changing sentiment among major foreign players.
Until this point, foreigners had consistently reduced their investments, acting as net sellers. The reversal of their role is an important signal for a market that has lived primarily on domestic demand in recent years. The term "net" is fundamental here: it refers to the difference between the volume of securities bought and sold, i.e., a real inflow of capital, not one-off transactions.
Who Was Behind the Deals: Retail vs. Institutional Investors
The main beneficiaries and drivers of this process were retail investors. Private individuals purchased securities worth 24.4 billion rubles, significantly outpacing all other trading participants in terms of net purchase volume. It was they who provided the market with the necessary liquidity and support throughout the month.
On the other side of the barricades were non-credit financial organizations. They disposed of shares worth 37.9 billion rubles, marking a record sales volume for them since 2020. Systemically important banks also actively reduced their positions, selling securities worth 22.7 billion rubles and adding to the market supply. Thus, we are witnessing a classic transfer of shares from institutional giants to private investors and foreigners.
Instrument Returns: Bitcoin Beyond Competition
Notably, in the same data set, the regulator recorded a complete picture of instrument returns for July. The absolute leader was the cryptocurrency bitcoin (BTC), yielding 10.1% — higher than any sector of the Russian market. For comparison, the best results among Russian industries were shown by chemical production (7.9%), transport (5.5%), and construction (4.9%).
In the middle of the list were corporate bonds, the IT sector (2.2%), and OFZs (2.0%). Gold yielded 1.5%. The worst performers for the month were substitute bonds (-0.9%), the Moscow Exchange index (-1.2%), and the metals and mining sector, which became the obvious outsider with a result of minus 6.1%. This contrast between the dynamics of cryptocurrencies and traditional Russian assets highlights where the most risk-seeking capital is currently flowing.
My view: The return of non-residents is a positive but cautious signal. It indicates that some foreign investors are beginning to adapt to the new conditions and are seeking opportunities in undervalued assets. However, record sales by local institutional investors suggest that a consensus among major players has not yet formed. The market remains hostage to retail demand, making it volatile and sensitive to changes in interest rates. For now, this is more of a targeted surge than a sustainable trend toward capital repatriation.