Crypto news

Sentiment around bitcoin is changing dramatically, and this is no longer just market noise but a structural shift. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, emphasized during a recent discussion on Bloomberg ETF IQ that the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency have finally diverged from traditional stock indices. This is not a coincidence but a natural outcome of six months of decoupling, which initially worked against "digital gold."

While AI company stocks were in a phase of rapid growth, bitcoin was treading water or correcting. However, in July, when the tech sector faced a serious crash, the situation flipped like a mirror image—BTC demonstrated noticeably more resilient dynamics. Mitchnick rightly notes that this divergence strengthens the investment thesis of bitcoin as a hedge and diversification tool capable of softening sharp drawdowns in other parts of a portfolio.

The core of spot ETF holders, according to him, consists of long-term investors focused on fundamental valuation rather than speculative trading. And this is confirmed by the numbers: for the week ending August 7, inflows into US bitcoin ETFs totaled $853.54 million—the highest figure since mid-April. Of that, $693.64 million went to BlackRock's IBIT fund, and $116.38 million to Fidelity's FBTC product.

Institutional players consolidate positions

Analysis of on-chain data shows that large players are acting ahead of the curve. The number of addresses with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more has grown to 90—a six-month high. Over the past eight weeks, this cohort has added six new wallets. Since July 29, large holders (from 10 to 10,000 BTC) have accumulated coins worth approximately $1.5 billion, while the balances of small investors have steadily declined in August. This is a classic redistribution in favor of "smart money."

Santiment analysts attribute this divergence to the aftermath of the Coldcard hardware wallet hack and the postponement of the vote on the CLARITY Act to September, which created temporary uncertainty for retail traders. However, the overall trajectory is clear: the chances of breaking the $70,000 level now look higher than the risks of falling below $60,000.

CryptoQuant data only reinforces this picture. On August 9, addresses with balances over 10,000 BTC purchased 46,420 coins in a single day—the largest volume since March 15. Over the past 60 days, this group has accumulated nearly twice as much as during the March peak. Notably, on the same day, holders of 0.1 to 1 BTC sold 9,700 coins. Such a divergence demonstrates two opposing positioning trends developing simultaneously.

Bearish signals and key levels

However, not all metrics are unambiguous. The balance of long-term holders continues to decline, indicating profit-taking by some experienced investors. Fewer new coins are transitioning into the LTH category than those leaving this group. This is a key indicator worth watching closely.

Wave analysis from CryptoQuant specialists paints a more cautious picture: the market may be in a phase of forming a top in the $66,317–68,965 zone. Upon reaching this level, a downward reversal is expected with a nearest target of $51,336 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Bearish MACD divergence and overbought RSI add arguments to this hypothesis.

At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin is approximately $64,300. Since the start of the year, the asset has fallen by 26.5%, and over the past year—by 46%. The release of US inflation data on August 12–13 will be the nearest trigger that determines whose strategy proves correct.

My comment: Whale accumulation amid retail investor weakness is a classic precursor to volatility. Given that institutions are actively increasing exposure ahead of the CPI release, the market is likely preparing for a directional move. However, bearish signals on LTH make me remain cautious: until the balance of long-term holders begins to grow, it is premature to talk about a full-fledged bullish reversal.