Foreign capital is returning: non-residents from friendly countries set a record for purchases of Russian shares
July was a turning point for the Russian stock market. For the first time in a long period, non-resident investors from friendly jurisdictions acted as net buyers of domestic stocks. Their net purchases reached 15.3 billion rubles — the highest figure since November 2020, signaling a qualitative shift in foreign capital sentiment.
Until this point, this category of participants had consistently been a net seller, so the change in direction became one of the key events of the month. Let me remind you that the term "net" here reflects the net value — the difference between the volume of securities bought and sold, which allows for an objective assessment of the real inflow or outflow of capital.
Who was behind the deals
Retail investors became the absolute leaders in net purchases on secondary exchange trading. Private individuals bought securities worth 24.4 billion rubles, significantly outpacing all other market participants. It was individuals who provided the main demand throughout the month, demonstrating high activity and confidence in the prospects of Russian assets.
On the other hand, non-credit financial organizations acted as the main sellers. They reduced their positions by 37.9 billion rubles — a record sales volume for this category since 2020. Systemically important banks also actively offloaded stocks, selling securities worth 22.7 billion rubles, thereby increasing supply on the market.
The regulator also noted the overall macroeconomic backdrop: volatility in most segments declined or remained at the previous month's level, the ruble continued to weaken, but at a slower pace. OFZ yields moved in different directions: growth was observed at the short end of the curve, while declines were seen at the long end.
The market in numbers: who led in returns
The comparative dynamics of instruments deserve special attention. Bitcoin became the absolute leader in July, delivering investors 10.1% returns. This result surpassed all Russian sectors, once again highlighting the unique status of digital assets as a high-yield class.
Among Russian market sectors, chemical production (+7.9%), transportation (+5.5%), construction (+4.9%), and electric power (+4.0%) grew the most. Retail (+3.6%) and currency deposits also showed decent results: from 2.6% for euros to 3.1% for yuan.
In the middle of the list were corporate bonds, the IT sector (+2.2%), and OFZs (+2.0%), while gold brought a modest 1.5%. Banks and finance (+1.7%), ruble money market funds (+1.2%), and ruble deposits (+1.1%) ended up as outsiders.
Three instruments showed the worst results: replacement bonds lost 0.9%, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 1.2%, and the metals and mining sector became the obvious laggard with a result of minus 6.1%.
My view: the return of non-residents as buyers is a powerful positive signal that may indicate the beginning of a reassessment of Russian assets by foreign investors. However, it is worth remembering that the current dynamics are largely driven by attractive dividend yields and the continued undervaluation of several sectors. At the same time, the weakness of metallurgists and the mining sector points to persistent structural risks that investors should not ignore.