BlackRock notes a shift in market regime: bitcoin has finally decoupled from equities
An analysis of market dynamics over the past month reveals a fundamental shift in how institutional investors perceive bitcoin. BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, noted during the ETF IQ program that the correlation between the first cryptocurrency and the stock market has been definitively broken, which is a positive signal for the entire ecosystem.
Decorrelation began to take shape in the first half of the year, when a rally in AI company stocks put pressure on digital gold. However, July's tech sector crash put everything in its place: bitcoin demonstrated significantly higher resilience. In my assessment, this is exactly the scenario that justifies including BTC in multi-asset portfolios — the asset acts as insurance against systemic risks in traditional classes.
"In July, amid a serious crash in the AI sector, bitcoin showed noticeably better performance. This divergence is positive for us — it strengthens the thesis of bitcoin as a diversification tool and insurance against sharp declines in other parts of the portfolio," Mitchnick emphasized.
The core of spot ETF holders, according to the expert, consists of long-term investors focused on fundamental asset valuation. Bitcoin has survived five full cycles, and each new cycle ended at higher levels — this historical pattern remains a key argument in favor of holding positions.
Institutional inflows and whale behavior
Capital flow data confirms renewed interest: for the week ending August 7, inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs totaled $853.54 million — the highest since mid-April. BlackRock's IBIT fund attracted $693.64 million, while Fidelity's FBTC brought in $116.38 million.
In parallel, consolidation of coins among major players is being observed. The number of addresses with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more reached 90 — a six-month high. Over eight weeks, this group grew by six wallets, and since July 29, large addresses (from 10 to 10,000 BTC) have accumulated about $1.5 billion. Santiment analysts link this to the redistribution of assets in favor of large holders amid the aftermath of the Coldcard hack and the postponement of the CLARITY Act vote.
CryptoQuant experts record a similar picture: on August 9, addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC purchased 46,420 coins — the largest daily volume since March 15. Meanwhile, small holders (from 0.1 to 1 BTC) sold 9,700 coins. According to analyst Amr Taha, the probability of a move above $70,000 is currently higher than the risk of a drop below $60,000.
Conflicting signals from on-chain indicators
However, not all metrics confirm the bullish scenario. The balance of long-term holders continues to decline: new coins transitioning into this category are not yet offsetting the outflow of experienced investors locking in profits. This is a key indicator to watch in the coming weeks.
Wave analysis from CryptoQuant specialists points to a possible top formation in the $66,317–68,965 range. Upon reaching this level, a reversal is expected with a target of $51,336 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level). Bearish MACD divergence and overbought RSI add arguments for proponents of the correction scenario.
The release of July U.S. inflation data (CPI on August 12, PPI on August 13) will be the key catalyst determining the direction of movement in the short term.
My view: the current picture reflects a classic redistribution phase before a major move. Whale accumulation amid retail investor weakness historically precedes upward impulses, but bearish on-chain signals cannot be ignored. The optimal strategy is to wait for confirmation of direction after the inflation data is released.