BlackRock notes a shift in sentiment: bitcoin has finally decoupled from the stock market.
Bitcoin's dynamics over the past month show a complete desynchronization from traditional stock indices, and this, oddly enough, is a positive signal for the entire industry. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, directly stated on the Bloomberg ETF IQ program that investor sentiment has shifted. According to his observations, the process of decoupling from equities began in the first half of the year, but initially worked against "digital gold": while AI company stocks were rapidly rising, bitcoin was treading water or depreciating.
However, in July the situation changed dramatically. Against the backdrop of a serious crash in the AI sector, the leading cryptocurrency showed significantly more confident dynamics. It is this divergence, according to Mitchnick, that strengthens the fundamental thesis of bitcoin as a hedge and diversification tool capable of insuring a portfolio against sharp drawdowns in other asset classes. The expert also emphasized that the core of spot ETF holders consists of long-term investors making decisions based on fundamental assessment rather than short-term volatility. Let me remind you that the asset has already survived five full cycles of growth and decline, and each new cycle invariably ended at higher levels than the previous one.
Institutional appetite returns
My data confirms this optimism. For the week ending August 7, total inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs amounted to an impressive $853.54 million — the highest figure since mid-April. At the same time, the main burden fell on BlackRock's IBIT fund, which attracted $693.64 million, while Fidelity's FBTC added another $116.38 million. This is direct evidence that institutional money is returning to the asset after a cooling-off period.
At the time of writing this analysis, the price of bitcoin is ~$64,300. Since the beginning of the year, the asset has lost about 26.5% of its value, and over the past 12 months it has declined by 46%. Nevertheless, current dynamics and capital flows point to a possible reversal of the medium-term trend.
Whales accumulate, retail sells
On-chain data also paints an extremely telling picture. The number of addresses with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more has grown to 90 — a six-month high. Over the past eight weeks, this elite group has been joined by six new wallets, representing an increase of 7.1%. Moreover, since July 29, large wallets (from 10 to 10,000 BTC) have accumulated coins worth approximately $1.5 billion, while the balances of small holders have been steadily declining in August.
CryptoQuant analysts record even more aggressive dynamics. On August 9, addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC purchased 46,420 coins in a single day — a record volume since March 15. Over the past 60 days, this group has accumulated almost twice as much as during the March peak. On the same day, holders of 0.1 to 1 BTC, on the contrary, sold 9,700 coins. Such a divergence demonstrates two opposing positioning trends: the largest players are increasing exposure, while smaller ones are reducing it.
The bearish counterargument
However, not all on-chain metrics are unambiguous. The balance of long-term holders continues to decline, indicating profit-taking by some experienced investors. Additionally, wave analysis from some CryptoQuant analysts points to a possible top formation. The zone of the final maximum is marked in the corridor of $66,317–68,965, after which a reversal is expected with a target of $51,336 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).
My verdict: Whale accumulation amid retail weakness is a classic sign of redistribution of the margin of safety before a major move. The probability of a rise above $70,000 now looks more realistic than a drop below $60,000, especially given the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could serve as a trigger for a new impulse.