Bitcoin in a vice: trading volumes have halved, while whales silently accumulate coins
The bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing a curious period of stagnation. On one hand, we are witnessing a sharp contraction in trading activity on centralized exchanges — volumes have fallen by more than 50% year-over-year. On the other hand, the largest holders of the leading cryptocurrency are not merely holding their positions but are demonstrating record aggression in accumulation over recent months. This is a classic scenario of hidden struggle, where the price remains flat while tectonic shifts occur beneath the surface.
Silence that frightens more than a decline
Notably, the BTC exchange rate itself has settled above the psychological mark of $60,000, but it is precisely this calm that raises concerns among analysts. The drop in volumes is a more alarming signal than volatility. In July 2025, at the peak of market euphoria, volumes on Binance reached $2.55 trillion, and on OKX — $1.055 trillion. A year later, the picture is radically different: turnover on Binance has fallen to $1.4 trillion (down ~45%), and on OKX — to $447 billion, which means a decline of nearly 57%.
The reduction of the total figure by more than half reflects a deep psychological shift. During a bull cycle, everyone participates in trading — from retail traders to institutional players. When the trend reverses, most participants close positions and step aside, leaving the market alone with its problems. When the depth of the order book shrinks, the market becomes extremely vulnerable: even a small influx of capital can trigger sharp price swings in either direction.
Whales vs. the crowd: who wins?
Against this backdrop, the behavior of the largest wallets looks especially interesting. As of August 9, addresses with a balance exceeding 10,000 BTC have accumulated 46,420 BTC over the past 60 days. This is a record figure since March 15 and nearly double the previous peak of 23,238 BTC recorded in mid-March. Notably, during the same period, smaller wallets (with balances ranging from 0.1 to 1 BTC) collectively sold off about 9,700 BTC.
Historically, such accumulation by "smart money" helped absorb seller pressure and reduce available supply. Now we are seeing a thin market meet an influx of demand precisely from those capable of moving it off the dead point. It is also telling that whales are increasing their exposure ahead of the release of key US macroeconomic statistics — the CPI and PPI indices. They are acting preemptively rather than trying to hedge risks.
Expert commentary: We are observing a classic divergence between retail investor sentiment and the actions of institutional players. Falling volumes are not always a bearish signal; often, this is an accumulation phase before a new impulse. If whales continue buying amid low liquidity, the likelihood of a sharp upward move after positive macroeconomic data is released increases significantly. However, it is worth remembering that a thin market is a double-edged sword, and in a negative scenario, the decline could be just as rapid.