Whales are buying bitcoins amid a record drop in exchange volumes: is the ground being prepared for a new surge?
The bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing a paradoxical moment: trading volumes on spot exchanges have more than halved over the past year, yet the largest holders of the cryptocurrency are showing the opposite trend, actively building up their positions. This divergence between a "quiet" market and the actions of institutional players deserves close attention.
An analysis of CryptoQuant data, which I conducted, reveals a troubling yet telling picture. While in July 2025, at the peak of market euphoria, trading volume on Binance reached $2.55 trillion and on OKX—$1.055 trillion, by July 2026 the situation had changed dramatically. Binance's turnover fell to $1.4 trillion (a decline of roughly 45%), while OKX showed an even deeper drop—to $447 billion, which is about 57% of its previous level.
Calm before the storm or a new reality?
The decline in the aggregate figure by more than 50% is not just a statistical anomaly. It is a clear psychological marker of a shift in the market phase. During a bull trend, everyone participates in trading—from retail traders to large funds. When the market turns, liquidity evaporates: investors close positions and step aside, leaving the market "thin" and extremely sensitive to any movement of capital.
This is precisely the danger I see in the current scenario. The reduction in order book depth strips the market of stability. In such a phase of uncertainty, even a modest inflow of funds can trigger sharp price swings, creating both risks and opportunities for experienced traders.
Whale strategy: accumulation against the trend
Against this backdrop, the behavior of the largest wallets is especially noteworthy. According to my analysis of CryptoQuant data, as of August 9, addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC had accumulated 46,420 BTC over the past 60 days. This is the highest figure since March 15 and nearly double the previous peak of 23,238 BTC recorded in mid-March.
Notably, smaller holders (wallets with balances from 0.1 to 1 BTC) over the same period, by contrast, sold off around 9,700 BTC. Such a divergence in the behavior of different market participant groups is a clear signal of asset consolidation in the hands of "strong hands." Historically, such accumulation by large players helped absorb selling pressure and reduce available supply, laying the groundwork for future price growth.
It is especially telling that whales are increasing their exposure ahead of the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data—the CPI and PPI indices—this week. Instead of reducing risk before potentially volatile events, the largest investors are expanding their positions, which speaks to their confidence in bitcoin's long-term potential.
My conclusion: the current situation is a classic redistribution phase. While retail investors are leaving the market in panic or apathy, institutional players are methodically collecting coins. If this trend persists and macroeconomic data delivers no unpleasant surprises, we could witness the formation of a new upward trend that will catch most participants off guard.