Night Watch: JPMorgan distances itself from Polymarket, Gemini sinks into losses, and Norway quietly enters ETH
While the market consolidated in narrow ranges, events occurred in the industry that will set the tone for the coming weeks. Regulatory pressure on prediction markets is intensifying, traditional giants continue to post losses, and institutions are finding new, roundabout ways to enter digital assets. I break down the key news from the past night.
Market: Calm Before the Storm?
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $63,167 as of 09:20 Moscow time. Overnight, the asset held in the $63,000 – $63,550 range but dipped slightly by morning. Ether (ETH) remained near $1,877, fluctuating between $1,874 and $1,890. Low volatility prevailed across the top 20 by market cap, with most coins losing less than 1%. Exceptions were TRON (TRX) and Dogecoin (DOGE), which fell by 1.12% and 1.02%, respectively.
Among the top 100, Velvet (VELVET) stood out with a gain of 28.78%. Ether.fi (ETHFI) and Cosmos (ATOM) also impressed, adding 11.95% and 11.54%. The laggard was Lighter (LIT), which plunged by 6.03%.
JPMorgan and Polymarket: A Broken Relationship
A year ago, JPMorgan severed banking ties with the prediction platform Polymarket. The reason was regulatory risks the bank deemed unacceptable. Polymarket was forced to seek a new partner. Notably, the split was not complete: JPMorgan continues to advise the company on a potential IPO and even invited its head to closed events. Against this backdrop, Polymarket is raising over $1 billion at a valuation of $20 billion, double last year's figures. This is a clear signal: even under strict regulation, capital flows into promising niches.
Gemini: Fourth Consecutive Loss-Making Quarter
The exchange Gemini reported a net loss of $107.7 million for the second quarter. This is already the fourth consecutive loss-making period. Revenue rose 37% year-over-year to $45.5 million, but assets on the platform plunged 54% to $8.4 billion. The company attributes this to falling prices and an outflow of institutional clients. The operating loss was reduced by 18%, but that is clearly not enough. Gemini is trying to diversify through prediction markets and stock trading, but so far this has not yielded tangible results.
Norway: A Cautious Entry into ETH
The most interesting signal came from Norway's sovereign wealth fund. The fund disclosed holding approximately 6.15 million shares of BitMine Immersion Technologies, worth about $81.87 million as of June 30. Thus, Norway gained indirect exposure to ETH without buying the cryptocurrency itself. As of August 9, BitMine held about 5.805 million ETH, of which approximately 5.067 million were staked. This is a classic example of how large institutions bypass direct investments in digital assets by using public companies as proxies.
My take: The situation with Gemini is a wake-up call for the entire centralized industry. Rising revenue amid a catastrophic drop in assets suggests the exchange survives on fees, not on trust. At the same time, Norway's move is a strategically important precedent. It shows that sovereign money will flow into cryptocurrencies, but only through instruments that are "clean" from a regulatory standpoint. This is the path that will become the primary route for institutional capital in the coming years.