MSCI indices under threat: Strategy and Metaplanet may lose membership due to new methodology
International index provider MSCI has come forward with a revolutionary initiative that could radically change the composition of global stock indices. This concerns a new methodology aimed at identifying companies that have essentially turned into repositories of non-operating assets rather than classic businesses.
My modeling based on data from May of this year shows that two prominent players in the crypto industry are primarily at risk — Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Japan's Metaplanet. Both companies are known for their aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy, which has effectively transformed their balance sheets into digital treasuries. The uranium investment company Yellow Cake also made it onto this list, confirming the systemic nature of the proposed changes.
Special attention deserves the potential exclusion of Strategy. According to my estimates, based on liquidity analysis and share capital structure, passive outflows from the company's securities under such a scenario could reach $2.8 billion. This is a colossal figure capable of exerting significant pressure on quotes and creating temporary volatility in the market.
It is important to emphasize that a final decision has not yet been made. MSCI is in the process of consultations and is accepting feedback from market participants until September 30. The final results are expected to be announced on October 16. This gives investors and the companies themselves a temporary window to assess the consequences and, possibly, adjust their strategies.
My expert view: This MSCI initiative is a warning sign for the entire industry. If implemented, it will create a precedent that could push other index providers to reconsider their inclusion criteria. For Strategy and Metaplanet, this will be a serious test, as exclusion from key indices deprives them of significant passive capital inflows. In the long term, this could force companies to reconsider their asset management policies, but it is unlikely to make them abandon their bitcoin strategy.