Bitcoin treasuries under threat: MSCI may exclude Strategy and Metaplanet from key indices
International index provider MSCI has proposed a new methodology that could radically change the status of companies that have accumulated significant non-operating assets. This concerns firms that formally remain public corporations but have essentially turned into repositories of digital or commodity reserves. My calculations based on May data show that Strategy, Japan's Metaplanet, and uranium investment company Yellow Cake would be hit first.
The essence of the proposal is to tighten the criteria for selecting issuers whose market value is largely determined not by their core business, but by speculative reserves. This directly targets the "bitcoin treasury" model actively promoted by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). If the methodology is adopted, these companies would be excluded from MSCI's global and regional indices, automatically triggering massive sell-offs by passive funds tracking these benchmarks.
Notably, JPMorgan analysts have already estimated the potential capital outflow from Strategy's shares in the event of exclusion—amounting to a hefty $2.8 billion. This would create strong pressure on the stock, which already demonstrates high volatility tied to the price of the first cryptocurrency. For Metaplanet, whose business is less diversified, the consequences could be even more devastating, given the lower liquidity of the Japanese market.
Significantly, MSCI is in no hurry to issue a final verdict: the window for market participant feedback is open until September 30, with a final decision expected on October 16. This gives investors time to maneuver, but does not remove the systemic risk. I see this initiative as an alarming signal for the entire bitcoin treasury ecosystem: if the largest index provider begins to discriminate against such companies, other rating agencies and funds may follow suit, undermining the appeal of the strategy of accumulating BTC on public companies' balance sheets.
My comment: This is a natural stage in the institutionalization of crypto assets—the market is learning to assess real operational activity, not just the presence of digital gold on the balance sheet. Exclusion from indices will not destroy the trend, but it will force issuers to reconsider their capital structure and seek new ways to retain institutional investors.