MSCI indexes are preparing to filter out bitcoin treasuries: Strategy and Metaplanet under threat
International index calculation provider MSCI has proposed for discussion a new methodology for assessing issuers that could radically change the approach to companies accumulating non-operating assets. This concerns filtering out firms that have effectively transformed into passive holders of large reserves unrelated to their core business. According to preliminary modeling based on market data from May, three notable players have fallen into the risk zone: American Strategy, Japanese Metaplanet, and investment company Yellow Cake, which specializes in uranium.
Of particular interest is the position of Strategy, which in recent years has aggressively built up its bitcoin reserves, becoming the largest corporate holder of the first cryptocurrency. If the new methodology is approved, shares of such companies could be excluded from global and regional MSCI indices, which would automatically trigger a wave of passive selling by index funds and ETFs. According to JPMorgan analysts' estimates, potential outflows from Strategy's securities in the event of such a scenario could reach an impressive $2.8 billion. This would create significant pressure on quotes and could provoke temporary volatility, despite fundamental support from institutional holders.
It is important to emphasize that a final decision has not yet been made. MSCI has opened a feedback collection period from market participants, which will last until September 30. The final results of the methodology review will be announced on October 16. Until that time, interested parties have the opportunity to adjust the proposed criteria or challenge their application to specific issuers.
My view on the situation
Such initiatives are a natural evolution of the index industry, which is trying to adapt to a new reality where public companies increasingly use their balance sheets as a tool for storing digital assets. However, for the cryptocurrency market, this is a dual signal: on the one hand, recognition of the scale of bitcoin treasuries, and on the other, the risk of increased correlation between traditional stock indices and digital assets. If the exclusion of Strategy occurs, we may see a short-term decline, but in the long term, this will only confirm the maturity of the sector, which no longer depends on inclusion in standard benchmarks.