Bitcoin broke through the $63,000 support: weak demand and futures pressure
On August 14, the leading cryptocurrency once again came under pressure, dropping below the key level of $63,000. The asset updated lows last seen in early August, signaling that bearish momentum persists in the market.
At the time of analysis, BTC is trading around $62,600, showing a decline of 1.5% over the day. Notably, Ethereum is showing relative resilience: its quotes have remained virtually unchanged, holding near $1,860. This divergence in dynamics highlights that the pressure is concentrated specifically in bitcoin, rather than across the entire altcoin market.
ETF outflows amplify the negative sentiment
The key alarming signal came from spot bitcoin ETF data: for the first time since late July, a two-day streak of outflows was recorded. On August 12 and 13, investors withdrew a total of $192 million. This suggests that institutional players have temporarily lost their risk appetite, despite a favorable macroeconomic backdrop.
Notably, the cryptocurrency's decline is occurring against the grain of stock market dynamics. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 4.7%, beating forecasts, which typically supports risk assets. However, bitcoin ignored this positive development, pointing to internal market imbalances.
Futures imbalance and supply zone
Open interest in bitcoin on Binance has continued to grow since early July and now stands at $27.09 billion. In my view, this is the key issue: amid weak spot demand and low liquidity, the market has accumulated a significant volume of leveraged positions. When positive news fails to drive gains, such borrowed orders begin to close, amplifying the downward move.
Additional pressure comes from a potential supply glut in the short-term holder cost basis zone around $68,700. This area acts as strong resistance, and without a substantial influx of liquidity, breaking through it in the near term will be extremely challenging.
My conclusion: the current environment resembles a classic scenario of "overheated futures with a cold spot." I previously warned of the risk of a pullback to $58,500, and now that scenario is becoming increasingly likely. Until we see a sustained recovery in ETF inflows, any rally will be perceived as an opportunity for shorts.