The "bitcoin treasury" strategy is under pressure: MSCI prepares to exclude Strategy and Metaplanet from indices.
Index giant MSCI (formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International) has launched a consultation process that could fundamentally change the rules of the game for public companies building their business model around the purchase of digital assets. At the center of attention is a proposal to exclude "non-operating companies" from the global GIMI indices. According to my modeling, if the new criteria—which are likely to be applied as early as May 2026—were implemented immediately, notable players such as Strategy and Metaplanet would drop out of the indices.
This is not just a technical adjustment. MSCI indices serve as a benchmark for asset management worldwide, and funds tracking them are required to replicate the composition. Any change in selection criteria can trigger massive capital flows—from billions of dollars in purchases to equally large sell-offs. The question is how hard this will hit companies whose market capitalization and liquidity directly depend on their presence in these indices.
Who is at risk of exclusion
The new filter MSCI proposes to introduce includes five financial ratios, among them—sufficiency of operating assets, cash flow, and dependence of growth on external financing. A company will be excluded if it fails four out of five tests. Essentially, this is a direct blow to structures that function as investment funds rather than operating businesses.
Strategy fits this definition perfectly with its model of endless Bitcoin accumulation. The company issues shares and bonds not to develop its software segment, but solely to replenish its cryptocurrency reserve. The situation is similar for Japan's Metaplanet, which, through aggressive share issuance, has amassed the third-largest corporate Bitcoin reserve in the world. Yellow Cake PLC, which specializes in storing physical uranium, also made the "exit list"—it violates the same criteria, although it has no direct connection to the crypto market.
Transitional measures and public watchlist
MSCI, however, is not rushing to act hastily. For existing index constituents, a softer threshold is provided than for new candidates. Exclusion will only occur after two consecutive failed reviews. Moreover, three more companies will be added to the new public watchlist, including SharpLink with ETH reserves. They face exclusion only after a repeated failure of the annual test.
The consultation period will end on September 30. Results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the November 2026 index review.
My view: This MSCI decision could set a precedent for other index providers that are now forced to determine the fate of companies whose strategy is built around digital assets. For structures like Strategy, this is not just a reputational risk, but a threat of passive investment outflows, which could significantly limit their ability to raise capital for further BTC purchases. Market players should already be assessing the risks associated with the potential loss of index status.