MSCI Strategy vs. Bitcoin Reserves: Strategy and Metaplanet at Risk of Exclusion
The largest stock index provider, MSCI, has launched a consultation on a project that could fundamentally change the rules of the game for companies accumulating crypto assets. A simulation conducted for May 2026 shows: if the new criteria are adopted, Strategy and Metaplanet — the two most prominent institutional bitcoin holders — will drop out of global indices.
MSCI, whose indices serve as a benchmark for asset managers worldwide, proposes to exclude so-called "non-operating companies." This refers to structures that are, by their very nature, more akin to investment funds than to operating businesses. The volume of assets tracking MSCI indices is measured in trillions of dollars, so any change in composition will inevitably trigger massive capital flows.
Who is at risk of exclusion
The new methodology includes five financial ratios, among them — the share of operating assets on the balance sheet, cash flow, and the dependence of growth on external financing. A company will be excluded if it fails four out of five tests. At the same time, the initial filter is triggered already when operating assets account for less than half of the balance sheet.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) fits this description perfectly with its aggressive strategy of buying up bitcoin through equity and bond issuance. A similar situation applies to Japan's Metaplanet, which, through share sales, has amassed the third-largest corporate BTC reserve in the world. Also on the exit list is Yellow Cake PLC — a company that stores physical uranium and conducts no operating activities. Notably, the filter hits not only crypto but also other "passive" assets.
Transitional measures and public watchlist
MSCI plans to soften the requirements for existing index constituents: exclusion will occur only after two consecutive failed reviews. In addition, three more companies will be added to the new public watchlist, including SharpLink with Ethereum reserves. They face exclusion only if they fail the tests again.
The consultation will run until September 30, results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the November index review in 2026. MSCI's decision could set a precedent for other providers, which will have to determine the fate of public companies that have built their financial strategy around digital assets.
Analyst comment: This is a landmark signal for the entire market. If MSCI actually excludes Strategy and Metaplanet, we will see not only automatic selling by index funds but also a reassessment of the very "treasury company" model. Investors should assess in advance the liquidity risks associated with a potential drop from the "blue chips."