MSCI Strategy: Metaplanet may leave global indices
On the horizon of May 2026, a significant structural shift is emerging for the market of public companies using cryptocurrency as a corporate treasury asset. My analysis of the MSCI (formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International) consultation project indicates that bitcoin investment giants such as Strategy and Metaplanet risk being excluded from global investable market indices (GIMI). A simulation conducted based on the new criteria showed that both companies would fail the proposed "operating activity" filter.
The essence of the MSCI initiative, which is currently in the public consultation stage, is to separate the "wheat from the chaff." The index provider intends to introduce additional financial ratios to identify companies that are essentially investment funds rather than active operating enterprises. This involves metrics such as the share of operating assets on the balance sheet, cash flow, and dependence on external financing. The rules stipulate that for inclusion in the index, a company must pass at least four out of five tests.
The primary filter already eliminates candidates with operating assets of less than half of the balance sheet. This is precisely where the root of the problem lies for Strategy. Its business model, based on issuing shares and bonds to build up bitcoin reserves rather than developing software, automatically falls under the definition of a "non-operating" company. The situation is similar for Japan's Metaplanet, which, through share sales, has amassed the third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve in the world. Yellow Cake PLC is also in the crosshairs, as its business is built on storing physical uranium—it violates the same criteria, although it has no connection to the crypto industry.
Mitigating circumstances and timelines
MSCI, aware of potential volatility, proposes transitional measures. For existing index constituents, the exclusion threshold will be softer than for new candidates. Exclusion is only possible after two consecutive failed assessments. Additionally, three other companies, including SharpLink with Ethereum reserves, will be placed on a public watchlist, but their exclusion is only possible upon a repeated test failure.
The consultation period will end on September 30. The final decision will be announced on October 16, and actual changes will take effect during the November index review in 2026.
This decision will set a precedent that could determine the direction for other index providers. Essentially, MSCI is challenging the very concept of public companies as "crypto trusts." In my understanding, this is not just a technical adjustment but a signal to the market that "shells" for holding digital assets will have to prove their operational viability to remain in the sights of institutional investors. Investors should assess in advance the risks associated with the possible exclusion of these securities from passive strategies and reconsider their portfolios before index funds begin forced selling.