Strategy under pressure: Strategy and Metaplanet may lose their place in MSCI indices
Index giant MSCI has initiated consultations on a project that could radically change the composition of global indices. The proposal concerns the exclusion of so-called "non-operating companies" — entities whose business is built not on production or services, but on asset ownership. According to a simulation conducted for May 2026, Strategy and Metaplanet are in the crosshairs, along with Yellow Cake PLC, which holds physical uranium.
MSCI, formerly known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is a benchmark for asset managers worldwide. Funds tracking its indices are required to replicate their composition, meaning any change in selection criteria could trigger massive capital flows — in the trillions of dollars. The new rules target companies that, by their very nature, resemble investment funds more than operating enterprises.
Who is at risk of exclusion
The second stage of the review includes five financial ratios, among them — the balance sheet's saturation with operating assets, cash flow, and growth dependence on external financing. A company will be removed from the index if it fails four out of five tests. However, it must first pass the primary filter: operating assets must account for less than half of the balance sheet.
Strategy, whose model involves issuing shares and bonds to build up bitcoin reserves, clearly does not meet the new requirements. Its software business has taken a back seat, giving way to aggressive BTC accumulation. The same applies to Metaplanet — the Japanese company has amassed the world's third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve precisely through share sales. Both entities risk failing the financial ratio checks.
Transitional measures and public list
MSCI plans to set a softer threshold for existing index constituents than for new candidates. Exclusion will only occur after two consecutive failed reviews. This gives companies time to adapt.
In addition to Strategy and Metaplanet, three more companies will be added to the new public watchlist. Among them is SharpLink with ETH reserves, which failed the latest annual review. It faces exclusion only after a second failure. Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium and conducts no operating activities, violates the same criteria as bitcoin holders, although it has no direct connection to the crypto market.
The MSCI consultation period will end on September 30. Results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the index review in November 2026. MSCI's decision could serve as a benchmark for other index providers, which will need to determine the fate of public companies that have built their financial strategies around digital assets.
My take: this is a landmark signal for the entire market. If MSCI actually excludes Strategy and Metaplanet, we will see not only pressure on their shares from index funds, but also a reassessment of the very "treasury company" model in the eyes of institutional investors. That said, the companies still have time — and perhaps they can adjust their structures to align with the new realities.