MSCI Strategy vs. Bitcoin Treasuries: Strategy and Metaplanet at Risk of Exclusion from Global Indices
MSCI, the global stock index giant, has launched consultations on a project that could radically reshape the global investment landscape. The proposal involves excluding so-called "non-operating companies" from the GIMI indices. My models and preliminary simulations for May 2026 show that Strategy and Metaplanet are the first to be hit, along with Yellow Cake PLC — a company that stores physical uranium.
For those unfamiliar with the mechanics: MSCI is not just a data provider, but an architect whose indices are followed by asset managers worldwide. Index funds managing trillions of dollars are required to replicate the composition of these indices. Any change in selection criteria is a signal for mass buying or selling that can crash or boost the quotes of individual securities.
The essence of the new filter
The second stage of screening involves five financial ratios, including balance sheet saturation with operating assets, cash flow, and the dependence of growth on external financing. If a company fails four out of five tests, it is removed from the index. The project is clearly aimed at companies that behave like investment funds rather than operating businesses. The first filter is simple: if operating assets account for less than half of the balance sheet, the company moves to the second stage of screening.
This filter is a death sentence for Strategy with its bitcoin-buying model. The company issues shares and bonds not to develop its software business, but solely to replenish its BTC reserves. The situation is similar for Metaplanet — a Japanese company that has amassed the world's third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve through share sales.
Transitional measures and public watchlist
MSCI plans to set a softer threshold for existing index members than for new candidates. Exclusion from the index will occur only after two consecutive failed screenings. Three companies will also be placed on the public watchlist, including SharpLink with ETH reserves. They failed the latest annual screening, but face exclusion only after a second failure.
Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium and conducts no operating activities, violates the same criteria as bitcoin holders, although it has no connection to the crypto market. The MSCI consultation period will end on September 30, results will be announced on October 16, and the changes will take effect during the index review in November 2026.
My analysis: This is not just a technical adjustment, but a tectonic shift in the perception of public companies using digital assets as the foundation of their treasury strategy. The MSCI decision will set a precedent for other index providers. If Strategy and Metaplanet are excluded, it will create a powerful negative signal for the entire bitcoin treasury sector, but at the same time, it could accelerate consolidation and the transition to more transparent corporate governance models.