Strategy on the edge: Strategy and Metaplanet may lose their place in the MSCI indices
MSCI, a global leader in stock indices, has launched consultations on a proposal that could radically change the game for companies whose business is built around unconventional assets. The proposal concerns the exclusion of so-called "non-operating companies" from the global GIMI indices. According to a simulation conducted for May 2026, Strategy and Metaplanet, as well as Yellow Cake PLC — a holder of physical uranium — would be hit.
For those unfamiliar with the mechanics: MSCI is not just a data provider, but a benchmark for asset managers worldwide. Index funds managing trillions of dollars are required to mirror the composition of MSCI indices. Any change in selection criteria can trigger a wave of mass buying or selling, and the current initiative is no exception.
The essence of the new rules is the introduction of five financial ratios, among which the key ones are the balance sheet's saturation with operating assets, cash flow, and growth dependence on external financing. A company will be excluded if it fails four out of five tests. This is a direct blow to those who behave more like an investment fund rather than an operating business.
My analysis shows that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), with its model of aggressively buying bitcoin through share and bond issuance, is a perfect candidate for removal. The company generates virtually no operating cash flow, and its balance sheet is, in essence, a BTC portfolio. A similar situation applies to Japan's Metaplanet, which has amassed the world's third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve through share placements. These companies are not developing software businesses; they are speculating on digital gold.
However, MSCI is softening the blow for existing participants: exclusion will only occur after two consecutive failed reviews. This gives Strategy and Metaplanet time to adapt. Additionally, three more companies will be added to the public watchlist, including SharpLink with ETH reserves, which face exclusion only after a second failure.
Notably, Yellow Cake, which has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies but stores physical uranium, violates the same criteria. This confirms: the new filter is not aimed against bitcoin as such, but against business models lacking operational activity.
Key dates: MSCI consultations will end on September 30, results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the index review in November 2026. This gives the market more than a year to restructure.
My expert opinion: MSCI's decision could set a precedent for other index providers. If companies like Strategy fail to prove their operational viability, their exclusion will trigger a massive outflow of institutional capital. This will be a serious test for the entire industry of corporate treasury reserves in cryptocurrency. The question is not "if" this will happen, but how quickly the market will adapt to the new reality.