The "bitcoin treasury" strategy is under pressure: MSCI prepares to exclude Strategy and Metaplanet from global indices.
The global financial infrastructure is beginning to impose new requirements on public companies, and this directly impacts the most fashionable strategy of recent years—accumulating bitcoin on corporate balance sheets. Stock index provider MSCI has launched a consultation process that could radically change the rules of the game for so-called "non-operating" companies. According to my analysis of simulation data as of May 2026, Strategy and Metaplanet are the first to be hit, along with Yellow Cake PLC—a holder of physical uranium.
The essence of the MSCI initiative, formerly known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is to introduce a filter that excludes companies that are essentially more akin to investment funds than operating businesses. Asset managers worldwide rely on MSCI indices when building portfolios, so any change in composition could trigger massive capital movements from index funds managing trillions of dollars.
Five tests that will decide the fate
The new methodology involves an assessment based on five financial ratios, including the balance sheet's saturation with operating assets, cash flow, and the dependence of growth on external financing. Exclusion threatens those who fail four out of five tests. However, there is an important nuance: for existing index members, the threshold will be more lenient than for newcomers. Exclusion will occur only after two consecutive failed assessments.
The first stage of the filter is that the share of operating assets on the balance sheet must exceed 50%. This is precisely where the root of the problem lies. Strategy, whose business model is built on issuing shares and bonds to buy up bitcoin rather than developing software, clearly does not meet this criterion. The same applies to Japan's Metaplanet, which, through share sales, has amassed the third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve in the world.
Transitional measures and a public list
Notably, three more companies will be added to the new public watchlist, including SharpLink with Ethereum reserves. They failed the latest annual assessment, but exclusion threatens them only after a repeat failure. Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium and conducts no operating activities, violates the same criteria as bitcoin holders, although it has no direct connection to the crypto market.
The MSCI consultation period will end on September 30. Results will be announced on October 16, and the changes themselves will take effect during the November index review in 2026. The MSCI decision could become a benchmark for other index providers that will need to determine the fate of public companies that have built their financial strategy around digital assets.
My comment: This is a landmark moment for the entire industry. The "bitcoin treasury" strategy challenges traditional notions of what a public company is. Exclusion from MSCI indices is not just a technical formality but a signal to the market that such business models may face institutional rejection. However, for the most steadfast BTC holders, this could be an opportunity to accumulate positions during dips caused by forced selling from index funds.