Strategy Under Threat: Strategy and Metaplanet May Disappear from MSCI Indices
The world's largest stock index provider, MSCI, has launched a consultation process that could radically change the rules of the game for companies whose business model revolves around holding digital or commodity assets. The proposal concerns the exclusion of "non-operating companies" from the global GIMI indices. According to a simulation conducted for May 2026, Strategy and Metaplanet—the two most prominent corporate bitcoin holders—would be hit first. Yellow Cake PLC, which specializes in holding physical uranium, also made the "drop" list.
What does this mean for the market? MSCI is not just a reference guide but a compass for asset managers worldwide. Index funds tracking MSCI compositions manage trillions of dollars, and any change in selection criteria can trigger massive forced selling or buying. The new filter is essentially aimed at separating the "wheat from the chaff": companies that behave like investment funds rather than operating businesses will no longer have a place in the indices.
Who is at risk of exclusion
The mechanics are simple and harsh. In the second stage of the review, a company must pass five financial tests, including sufficiency of operating assets, cash flow, and dependence on external financing. If a company fails four out of five tests, it is excluded. The primary filter triggers when operating assets account for less than half of the total balance sheet.
This is precisely where the problem lies for Strategy and Metaplanet. Both companies have essentially turned into bitcoin trusts, financing BTC purchases through share and bond issuance. Their operating activities have taken a back seat, automatically placing them under the criteria for "non-operating" companies. Metaplanet, which has amassed the third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve, also fails to meet the required standards.
Transitional measures and public watchlist
However, MSCI is softening the blow for existing participants. Exclusion from the index will only occur after two consecutive failed reviews, giving companies time to adapt. Additionally, three more companies will be added to the public watchlist, including SharpLink with ETH reserves, which face exclusion only upon a repeated failure.
Notably, Yellow Cake, which has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies but holds physical uranium, violates the same criteria. This confirms that MSCI's new approach is not directed against bitcoin per se, but against the very concept of a "storage company" for assets without real operating business. The consultation will end on September 30, with the final decision announced on October 16. The changes themselves will take effect during the index review in November 2026.
My take: This is a landmark signal for the entire industry. If MSCI actually excludes Strategy and Metaplanet, it will not only trigger pressure on their shares from index funds but also force other companies following their model to reconsider their strategy. Perhaps we are on the brink of a new era where "bitcoin treasuries" will cease to be merely passive storage and will be compelled to prove their operational viability. The market should brace for volatility as early as October.