Crypto giants under threat: Strategy and Metaplanet may leave MSCI indices
The world of institutional investment stands on the brink of a tectonic shift. MSCI, one of the pillars of global stock indexing, has launched consultations on a project that could forever change the rules of the game for companies whose business model is built around owning assets rather than operational activities. My latest data and simulations, conducted as of May 2026, indicate that giants such as Strategy and Metaplanet, as well as Yellow Cake PLC, whose main asset is physical uranium, will be hit first.
For those unfamiliar with market mechanics, let me explain: MSCI is not just an index provider. It is a compass that asset managers around the world follow, from small funds to giants with trillions of dollars under management. Changes to the selection criteria in MSCI indices automatically trigger a wave of forced buying or selling by index funds, which are obligated to replicate the composition of the benchmark. Therefore, any such decision is not just a formality, but a direct signal to the market that can crash or boost companies' market capitalizations.
Who is at risk of exclusion?
The essence of the new project is the introduction of strict financial ratios for companies that MSCI considers "non-operational." This involves five key metrics, including the share of operating assets on the balance sheet, cash flow, and the dependence of growth on external financing. If a company fails four out of five tests, it will be excluded from the global GIMI indices.
This filter is a real mine for business models built on hoarding digital assets. Take Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Its strategy is endless issuance of shares and bonds to replenish bitcoin reserves, rather than to develop software. This makes it an ideal candidate for removal. The same fate awaits Japan's Metaplanet, which has essentially amassed the third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve in the world solely through selling its own shares. Even Yellow Cake, which has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies but holds physical uranium, falls into the same trap because its operational activity is minimal.
Transitional measures and public watchlist
MSCI, however, does not intend to act with surgical rigidity. For companies already included in the index, a softer entry threshold is provided than for newcomers. Exclusion will only occur after two consecutive failed checks, giving offenders time to adapt. In addition, three more companies will be added to the new public watchlist, including SharpLink with its ether (ETH) reserves. They have not yet passed the annual check, but exclusion threatens them only after a repeated failure.
The consultation period will end on September 30. Official results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the November 2026 index review.
My comment: This MSCI decision could become a watershed for the entire industry. It creates a dangerous precedent that other index providers may follow. For Strategy and Metaplanet, this is not just a technical risk—it is an existential challenge to their model that could force them to reconsider their strategy or seek new ways to attract institutional capital. The market will be closely watching every step these companies take in the coming months.