MSCI Strategy vs. Bitcoin Treasuries: Strategy and Metaplanet at Risk of Exclusion from Indices
The world's largest stock index provider, MSCI, has launched a consultation process that could fundamentally change the rules of the game for public companies accumulating crypto assets. My analysis shows that the proposed changes, aimed at excluding so-called "non-operating companies" from global indices, will directly hit bitcoin strategy giants such as Strategy and Metaplanet.
According to a simulation I conducted based on the new criteria, by May 2026 these two companies, along with uranium reserve operator Yellow Cake PLC, could be excluded from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes (GIMI). This is not just a technical adjustment—it is a tectonic shift for the entire market.
The essence of the new rules: a financial stress test
MSCI, whose indices serve as a benchmark for asset management worldwide, plans to introduce a five-step financial test. It will evaluate metrics such as the sufficiency of operating assets, cash flow, and the dependence of growth on external financing. A company will be excluded if it fails four out of five tests.
The key filter is the share of operating assets on the balance sheet. If it is less than half, the company moves to the second stage of review. This is where the main problem lies for bitcoin holders. Both Strategy and Metaplanet use share and bond issuance not to develop their core business, but to replenish cryptocurrency reserves. In essence, they function as investment funds rather than operating enterprises, which is a direct violation of the new criteria.
Transitional measures and a public watchlist
However, MSCI has also provided a softer scenario for existing index members. For them, the entry threshold will be lower than for new candidates, and exclusion will occur only after two consecutive failed reviews. Nevertheless, three companies have already been added to the new public watchlist, including SharpLink with Ethereum reserves. They face exclusion only after a second failure.
Notably, Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium and has no operating business, violates the same criteria as bitcoin holders, even though it has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. This confirms that the new rules are aimed not at a specific asset, but at the "company-as-vault" model itself.
My analysis: The consultation period will end on September 30, with results announced on October 16. The changes will take effect during the November 2026 index review. This decision will set a precedent for other index providers and could trigger a massive outflow of capital from such structures. In the long term, this may force companies to reconsider their strategy, but for now the market awaits a verdict that will determine whether "digital treasuries" can survive in the new reality of institutional investing.