Strategy on the Brink: Strategy and Metaplanet May Disappear from Key MSCI Indices
Index giant MSCI has launched a consultation process that could radically reshape the global investment landscape. A simulation conducted for May 2026 showed that prominent bitcoin holders such as Strategy and Metaplanet risk being excluded from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes (GIMI). Yellow Cake PLC, a company specializing in uranium storage, also appeared on the list for potential removal.
MSCI, formerly known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is one of the key benchmarks for asset managers worldwide. A change in selection criteria could trigger massive capital movements, as index funds managing trillions of dollars are required to replicate the index composition. This makes the current initiative critical for the future of many public companies.
Who is at risk of exclusion
The essence of the new approach is the introduction of five financial ratios, including the ratio of operating assets to the balance sheet, cash flow, and growth dependence on external financing. A company will be excluded if it fails four out of five tests. This filter targets organizations that are essentially more like investment funds rather than operating businesses. Initial screening occurs if operating assets account for less than half of the balance sheet.
Strategy does not meet these criteria with its model of aggressive bitcoin accumulation. The company issues shares and bonds solely to purchase BTC, rather than to develop its software business. The situation is similar for Metaplanet, a Japanese company that has built the world's third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve through share sales.
Transitional measures and public list
MSCI plans to set a softer threshold for existing index members compared to new candidates. Exclusion from the index will only occur after two consecutive failed reviews. SharpLink, with its ETH reserves, will also be added to the new public watch list. They failed the latest annual review, so exclusion only threatens them after a second failure.
Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium and does not run an operating business, violates the same criteria as bitcoin holders, although it has no connection to the crypto market.
The MSCI consultation period will end on September 30. Results are expected to be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the index review in November 2026.
MSCI's decision could serve as a benchmark for other index providers that will need to determine the fate of public companies that have built their financial strategy around digital assets.
My take: this is not just a technical adjustment, but a signal to the market that "shell" structures without real operating businesses will no longer enjoy the privileges of index investing. For bitcoin holders, this creates a new liquidity risk that must be factored into portfolio management strategy.