Strategy on the Brink: Strategy and Metaplanet at Risk of Exclusion from MSCI Indices
The world of institutional investment is on the brink of tectonic shifts. MSCI, one of the world's leading stock index providers, has launched a large-scale consultation that could forever change the rules of the game for companies whose business is built around storing digital or commodity assets rather than operational activities. My analysis shows that two flagship companies of the bitcoin industry—Strategy and Metaplanet—are primarily in the crosshairs.
The essence of MSCI's initiative, formerly known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is to introduce strict criteria for excluding so-called "non-operating" companies from global indices (GIMI). This refers to businesses that are essentially investment funds rather than manufacturing or technology enterprises. The new rules propose an assessment based on five key financial ratios, including the share of operating assets on the balance sheet, cash flow, and dependence on external financing. If a company fails four out of five tests, its path to the index is closed.
Who is at risk
The simulation conducted by MSCI for May 2026 has already yielded disappointing results. Dropping out of the indices are Strategy with its aggressive bitcoin-buying strategy, Metaplanet, Japan's follower of this model, as well as Yellow Cake PLC—a company that stores physical uranium and has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. This confirms: the filter is not aimed against the crypto industry as such, but against the very concept of a "vault company."
The selection mechanism is simple and ruthless. If operating assets make up less than half of the balance sheet, the company moves to the second stage of review. It is precisely here that bitcoin holders fail: their business is issuing shares and bonds to buy BTC, not developing software or a hotel business like Metaplanet.
Transition period and consequences
MSCI, understanding the scale of the potential shock, offers a "soft landing" for current index participants. Exclusion will occur only after two consecutive failed reviews. Additionally, three more companies will be added to the public watchlist, including SharpLink with Ethereum reserves. They failed the annual review but will get a chance to correct themselves before the second warning.
The consultations will last until September 30, results will be announced on October 16, and the final changes will take effect during the November index review in 2026. This gives companies time to maneuver, but does not guarantee salvation.
My view: This decision is a wake-up call for the entire industry. The "treasury company" model, which simply hoards assets, ceases to be attractive to institutional indices. Perhaps we will witness a new wave of corporate restructurings, where bitcoin holders will have to prove their operational viability to remain in the sights of the world's largest funds. Otherwise, they face the fate of outcasts, cut off from trillions of dollars in passive investments.