Strategy under question: Strategy and Metaplanet may leave MSCI indices due to new rules
The largest public bitcoin holders — Strategy and Metaplanet — risk being excluded from the global MSCI indices. The reason is a new consultation draft aimed at filtering out so-called "non-operating" companies whose business model is built around investments rather than operational activities.
MSCI, one of the world's leading stock index providers, is considering tightening its inclusion criteria. According to a simulation based on May 2026 data, Strategy and Metaplanet would drop out of the indices if the new rules were applied. The same list includes Yellow Cake PLC, a company specializing in the storage of physical uranium.
Asset managers around the world rely on MSCI indices when building portfolios. A change in the index composition is not just a formality: index funds are required to replicate its structure, which could trigger massive purchases or sales worth trillions of dollars. Thus, exclusion from the index is a direct blow to a company's liquidity and market capitalization.
Five financial tests — and four out of five passed with flying colors
The new methodology includes five key financial ratios, among them the balance sheet's saturation with operating assets, cash flow, and the dependence of growth on external financing. A company will be excluded if it fails four out of five tests. The draft is designed to filter out structures that behave more like investment funds rather than operating businesses.
The first stage is a basic filter: if operating assets account for less than half of the balance sheet, the company moves to the second stage of review. Both bitcoin companies fall under this definition. Strategy, which actively issues shares and bonds to buy up BTC, clearly does not fit the new framework. Metaplanet, which has amassed the world's third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve through share sales, also fails the criteria.
Transitional measures and a public watchlist
MSCI plans to soften the conditions for companies already included in the index: exclusion will only occur after two consecutive failed reviews. However, other structures will also make it onto the public watchlist, such as SharpLink with Ethereum reserves. They failed the annual review and face exclusion after a second failure.
MSCI consultations will end on September 30. Results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the index review in November 2026.
MSCI's decision could set a precedent for other index providers, which will also be forced to determine the fate of companies that have built their financial strategy around digital assets. This is not just a technical issue — it is a signal to the market that traditional financial institutions are beginning to reconsider their attitude toward "bitcoin treasuries" as a legitimate business.
My view: This is an expected but important step. Index providers are adapting to a new reality where the line between an operating company and an investment holding is blurring. For Strategy and Metaplanet, this is not the end of the story, but a serious challenge: they will have to prove to the market that their model is not just speculation on BTC, but a long-term strategy for creating shareholder value. Otherwise, exclusion from indices could become the first step toward declining interest from institutional investors.