Crypto news

15.08.2026
11:13

Double circuit instead of a single one: how the new law will split Russia's crypto market into "inside" and "outside"

Sending $200 abroad today costs an average of 6.4% of the amount, and through a bank — almost 15%. At the same time, the payment message itself reaches the recipient bank in ten minutes. All the remaining delay and the lion's share of costs are not data transmission but post-processing: compliance checks, reconciliation, and crediting at the local bank. Over the past month, five different approaches have tried to close this gap, and the Russian approach turned out to be the most unusual.

Last week, on August 4, the president signed the law "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights." Three weeks earlier, the U.S. legislatively banned its own digital dollar, Europe sat down for final negotiations on the digital euro, the Bank for International Settlements conducted its first real-money settlements in the Agorá project, and Mastercard closed the acquisition of a company specializing in stablecoin settlements. All five are answering one question, and the Russian answer differs in one way: only here does the state build two payment rails at once and regulate them differently.

The dispute is not about technology

The bottleneck is not message transmission: according to SWIFT statistics, three out of four payments reach the recipient bank in ten minutes. Time and money are consumed by the "last mile" — compliance checks, reconciliation, and crediting at the local bank. The real subject of the dispute is whose obligation you hold in your hands at the moment of settlement: the central bank's, a commercial bank's, a private issuer company's, or a payment network's. This determines whom to turn to if a payment goes missing, and who uses the money while it sits in the system.

This balance is the raw material of the banking economy: it is what they earn on, what they issue loans from, and what they keep clients for. Almost every decision of the past year is designed to keep the balance from leaving the banking system.

What the Russian law introduces

The law takes effect on September 1, 2026; mandatory registration of crypto exchangers in the Bank of Russia registry — from July 1, 2027; some requirements for intermediaries — from September 2027. A new category of professional participants emerges — digital depositories: they maintain records of clients' crypto assets, keep primary and backup IT infrastructure in Russia, and compensate for damages in cases of unlawful write-offs. Crypto exchangers with own funds of at least 15 million rubles are legalized.

The criteria for admitting assets to trading are enshrined in the law itself: market capitalization above 5 trillion rubles, average daily turnover above 1 trillion, and a trading history of at least five years — all averaged over two years. Today, bitcoin and ether fall under these criteria. For non-qualified investors, a limit of 300 thousand rubles per year per intermediary and mandatory testing are established.

The provision that will affect practice earlier than others is settlements under foreign trade contracts. It has been in effect since September 2024 in the Bank of Russia's experimental mode, and the new law makes it permanent. Domestic payments in cryptocurrency remain prohibited. Not only custodial wallets but also self-custody ones are allowed; for withdrawals exceeding 100 thousand rubles to an external address, a 48-hour delay is provided — it will take effect on September 1, 2027.

The Central Bank's list itself does not prohibit owning assets outside it: the criteria apply to public offerings through Russian intermediaries, not to ownership rights, and digital currency is recognized as property with judicial protection. Foreign and non-custodial wallets are not prohibited; the owner is recognized as the one holding the access key. The obligation to declare the mere fact of ownership is not directly established — except for civil servants. Two or more transactions per month exceeding 3.5 million rubles are considered by the law as a sign of organized activity requiring intermediary status.

Tax arises upon sale, not upon holding: 13% on income up to 2.4 million rubles and 15% above that, with a 3-NDFL declaration due by April 30. The holding-period exemption that applies to certain types of property does not apply to digital currency. From July 1, 2027, banks are required to refuse transfers to unlicensed crypto services — the channel for funding foreign platforms through a Russian bank closes.

Two rails instead of one

Domestically, starting September 1, mandatory acceptance of the digital ruble begins — the state retail currency that the U.S. has banned until the end of 2030 and that Europe is only designing so far. Externally, the circulation of private global assets is legalized. Both instruments are used simultaneously but separated by purpose: domestically — only the public rail, externally — only the private one.

The logic of the separation is simple if you look at obligations. Domestically, the balance remains with the Bank of Russia: this provides traceability of settlements and independence from external infrastructure — while simultaneously raising the same privacy question that led the U.S. to abandon the retail model. Externally, an asset is used that is issued by none of the transaction participants — which is why it works where correspondent channels have become difficult to navigate due to external restrictions in recent years. The sanctions context is not named in the law, but it is the most obvious explanation for the foreign trade provision: the issue is not the transfer fee but the availability of the channel itself.

The combination of public and private rails is not unique in itself — China, the UAE, and India do the same. The distinctiveness of the Russian model lies in the rigid segmentation by payment purpose, and it is shaped by external circumstances no less than by design.

The world, the market, and the practical takeaway

The American framework took shape over a year. The GENIUS Act (July 2025) requires full backing of stablecoins with liquid assets and directly prohibits paying holders income on the token. And on July 11, 2026, the ban on retail central bank digital currency became law: until the end of 2030, the Fed is not authorized to issue a CBDC. Europe chose the opposite instrument: the digital euro is being designed as a public alternative with zero yield and a holding limit; the regulation has not been adopted, a pilot is planned for the second half of 2027, and the first issuance for 2029.

Mastercard closed the acquisition of BVNK on August 3; the announced price in March was up to $1.8 billion, including about $300 million in contingent payments. The asset's value is largely regulatory: BVNK received a license under the MiCA regulation in Malta in February 2026, valid across the entire EU. In July, Visa launched a stablecoin issuance platform for banks. Card networks are embedding new instruments into the settlement layer while retaining the client and the rules: they do not need the balance — they earn on the flow. The share of stablecoins in cross-border retail payments in 2025 was 0.31%.

The only one to report real-money settlements is the Bank for International Settlements project. Results were published on July 30: about thirty participants, including five central banks, 30 transactions in six currencies totaling around one million dollars, with an average settlement time of 80 seconds versus several business days in correspondent practice. At the same time, the platform operated autonomously, without connection to existing systems and without real compliance procedures.

Countries' trajectories are diverging. Of the eleven BRICS countries, all are studying digital currencies, nine have reached the pilot stage, but none has launched a full-scale system. Since January 1, 2026, China has reclassified the digital yuan held in commercial bank accounts as a deposit obligation — interest accrues on it and deposit insurance applies, meaning Beijing decided to return the balance to banks through yield. India is moving in the opposite direction: the volume of the digital rupee in circulation declined for the first time by 24% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, and Brazil in November 2025 shut down the Drex platform, admitting that the technology failed to ensure privacy and security.

The digital ruble looks modest — as of July 1, over 25 million digital rubles were in circulation, about $320 thousand for the entire country — but in two months, acceptance becomes mandatory for companies with revenue above 120 million rubles. For foreign trade participants, the law removes some legal uncertainty within the Russian framework, but it does not regulate the external side of the transaction: the foreign counterparty's willingness to accept payment is determined by its own compliance and assessment of sanctions risk. Bitcoin and ether, admitted to trading, are volatile, and that is an independent risk for a contract with deferred payment.

Mandatory acceptance of the digital ruble creates a forced flow from bank balances into a Central Bank liability — exactly what everyone else is avoiding. The question for the next year and a half is not whether the rails of different countries will interconnect, but whether Russia will repeat China's maneuver — accrue yield or otherwise return the balance to banks. The answer will be visible in the dynamics of the deposit base by the end of 2027.

My conclusion: the Russian model is not an experiment with technology but a forced architecture under sanctions pressure. A public rail domestically and a private one externally is the only way to maintain control while simultaneously enabling foreign economic activity. But betting on the digital ruble as a mandatory instrument is a risky step: if the balance does not return to banks, it will hit the liquidity of the entire system.