Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage are estimated at only 10%.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects ongoing political disagreements that continue to stall the initiative's progress, despite its importance for regulating the crypto industry.
Two aspects remain key sticking points: first, ethical standards for government officials, which are contentious among lawmakers, and second, provisions related to stablecoin yields. These issues create significant obstacles to achieving bipartisan consensus, which is critical for the bill to pass through the upper chamber of parliament.
The time window for passing the CLARITY Act is also narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the start of the midterm elections, which will inevitably shift politicians' attention to election campaigns. Under such conditions, it is unlikely that a complex and controversial bill will receive priority on the agenda.
This situation highlights the vulnerability of crypto regulation to the political calendar. Even technically well-developed initiatives can get stuck in bureaucratic and partisan twists, creating additional uncertainty for the market. For investors and industry participants, this means that expectations of rapid progress in the legislative sphere are likely to be overestimated.
My expert assessment: lowering the probability to 10% looks realistic, given the current polarization in Congress. However, it is worth noting that in crypto politics, the situation can change rapidly—if key disagreements are resolved at the last moment, the chances could rise, albeit slightly. The market should prepare for prolonged uncertainty until 2027.