Strategy under pressure: Strategy and Metaplanet may leave MSCI indices due to new rules
Index giant MSCI has launched consultations on a project that could radically change the composition of global indices. The focus is on excluding so-called "non-operating companies" — those whose business is built not on production or services, but on holding assets. According to a simulation for May 2026, Strategy and Metaplanet, as well as Yellow Cake PLC — a holder of physical uranium — are in the crosshairs.
MSCI, formerly known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is a benchmark for asset managers worldwide. Index funds managing trillions of dollars are required to replicate its composition. Any change in selection criteria can trigger large-scale purchases or sales of stocks, and the current initiative is no exception.
Who is at risk of exclusion
The second stage of the review includes five financial ratios: balance sheet saturation with operating assets, cash flow, and growth dependence on external financing. A company will be removed from the index if it fails four out of five tests. The project targets those that behave more like an investment fund rather than an operating business.
The main filter triggers if operating assets account for less than half of the balance sheet. Strategy, with its bitcoin-buying model, does not meet this rule: the company issues shares and bonds to purchase BTC, not to grow its software business. The same filter applies to Metaplanet — the Japanese company has amassed the world's third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve through share sales.
Transitional measures and public list
MSCI plans to set a softer threshold for existing index members than for new candidates. Exclusion will only occur after two consecutive failed reviews. Three more companies will be added to a new public watchlist, including SharpLink with ETH reserves — they face exclusion only after a second failure.
Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium and conducts no operating activities, has violated the same criteria as bitcoin holders, although it has no connection to the crypto market. The MSCI consultation period will end on September 30, results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the index review in November 2026.
My view: This decision could set a precedent for other index providers, which are now forced to determine the fate of public companies that have built their financial strategy around digital assets. For Strategy and Metaplanet, this is not just a technical risk — it is a signal to the market that their models may be reconsidered by institutional investors, which could amplify volatility in their stocks. Investors should closely monitor the consultation outcomes: even a temporary exclusion from MSCI indices could lead to significant capital outflows.