Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to regulate the legal status of cryptocurrencies in the United States. According to my latest assessment, the probability that the initiative will be approved by the Senate before the end of 2026 stands at only 10%. This is a notable decline compared to the more optimistic forecasts voiced earlier this year.
Key reasons for the revision
The main stumbling block remains unresolved political disagreements. In particular, the bill faces serious opposition due to ethical standards for public officials that could be affected by the new rules, as well as controversial provisions concerning stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking heated debates both among lawmakers and within the financial community, significantly slowing the document's progress.
An additional pressure factor is the tight timeline. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for active work on the bill. This period coincides with the election race ahead of the midterm elections, sharply reducing the priority of regulatory initiatives in the digital assets space. The political agenda is shifting toward electoral campaigns, and the CLARITY Act risks being left by the wayside.
Analyst's perspective
From my professional point of view, even if the CLARITY Act is not passed in this cycle, its discussion has already set an important precedent. The cryptocurrency market continues to need clear rules of the game, and any delay only amplifies uncertainty for institutional investors. However, if lawmakers fail to reach a compromise on the ethical and stablecoin issues, we may see the debate postponed to the next Congress session, delaying the long-awaited clarity for years to come.