Survival Strategy: Strategy and Metaplanet at Risk of Being Removed from MSCI Indices
MSCI, the world's leading provider of stock indices, has launched consultations on a project that could radically change the landscape of global investment. The issue at hand is the possible exclusion of so-called "non-operating companies" from the global investable market indices (GIMI). My latest calculations and analysis of simulation data for May 2026 show that two iconic companies for the crypto industry will be hit first — Strategy and Metaplanet. Yellow Cake PLC, which specializes in uranium storage, also made it onto this list.
MSCI, formerly known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is the benchmark for asset managers worldwide. Index funds managing trillions of dollars are required to replicate the composition of MSCI indices. Any change in selection criteria can trigger large-scale buying or selling, and the current initiative is no exception.
Who is at risk of exclusion
The essence of the new approach is the introduction of a second stage of screening, which includes five financial ratios: balance sheet saturation with operating assets, cash flow, and growth dependence on external financing. If a company fails four out of five tests, it leaves the index. This filter is clearly aimed at organizations that function more like investment funds rather than operating businesses.
A company enters the second stage if operating assets account for less than half of its balance sheet. Strategy, with its aggressive bitcoin-buying model, fits these criteria perfectly: the issuance of shares and bonds is aimed solely at replenishing BTC reserves, not at developing its software business. The situation is similar for Metaplanet, a Japanese company that has amassed the world's third-largest corporate bitcoin reserve through share sales.
Transitional measures and public list
MSCI plans to soften the transition for existing index members compared to new candidates. Exclusion will only occur after two consecutive failed screenings. In addition, three companies will be added to a new public watchlist, including SharpLink with reserves in Ethereum (ETH). They failed the latest annual screening, and exclusion only threatens them after a repeat failure.
Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium and conducts no operating activities, violates the same criteria as bitcoin holders, although it has no direct relation to the crypto market. This underscores the systemic nature of the changes.
MSCI's consultation period will end on September 30. Results will be announced on October 16, and changes will take effect during the index review in November 2026.
My expert view: MSCI's decision could set a precedent for other index providers, which are now forced to determine the fate of public companies that have built their financial strategy around digital assets. This is a signal to the market: the era of "bitcoin treasuries" as an easy way to raise capital may face institutional barriers, which will require such companies to reconsider their corporate structure or find new ways to integrate into traditional finance.