Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed in the U.S. to 10%: what is hindering the stablecoin bill
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have significantly revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to regulate the circulation of stablecoins in the United States. According to my assessment of the market situation, the probability that the initiative will be approved by the Senate as early as 2026 now stands at just 10%. This is a notable decline compared to previous expectations, signaling growing complications in the legislative process.
The key obstacle remains unresolved political disagreements that are accumulating around the document. In particular, disputes are sparked by the introduction of ethical standards for government officials who may become involved in digital asset regulation, as well as provisions concerning the distribution of yield from stablecoins. These aspects are fueling fierce debates both among lawmakers and in lobbying circles, which significantly slows the bill's progress.
The time factor works against the initiative's supporters. After members of Congress return from recess on September 14, they will have an extremely limited window—just two to three weeks—before the campaign season begins ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, the political agenda will inevitably shift toward electoral campaigns, and complex technical bills like the CLARITY Act risk being postponed indefinitely.
From my expert perspective, this dynamic reflects a broader trend: cryptocurrency regulation in the United States is becoming hostage to the political calendar. Even if the bill has substantive support, the lack of consensus on seemingly secondary issues could bury it for years. For the market, this means continued uncertainty, which in turn hampers institutional adoption of stablecoins and pushes issuers toward more favorable jurisdictions, such as Europe or Singapore.