Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage are estimated at only 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the legislative process ahead of the midterm elections.
The key factor hindering the initiative's progress remains unresolved political disagreements. In particular, this concerns two contentious blocks: ethical standards for public officials who may be involved in regulating digital assets, and provisions related to the distribution of stablecoin yields. These issues are sparking heated debates both among lawmakers and in lobbying circles, making consensus extremely difficult to achieve.
The time window for passing the law is also critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the active phase of the election campaign begins. During this period, Congress's attention will inevitably shift to political battles rather than the complex technical aspects of cryptocurrency regulation. It is practically impossible to imagine that such a controversial bill could pass all stages of discussion and voting within such a tight schedule.
From my point of view, this scenario looks quite realistic. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, the very fact of its development creates an important precedent and framework for future discussions. However, the market should not count on swift legislative progress in the U.S. Investors and industry participants should prepare for a continued period of regulatory uncertainty, which will likely put pressure on institutional adoption in the short term.