Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed: market analysis and political realities
Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act bill in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability estimate of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects deep systemic issues facing the initiative, despite its potential significance for digital asset regulation.
Key obstacles remain unresolved political disagreements that extend far beyond technical details. First and foremost, this concerns ethical standards for government officials—an aspect that sparks fierce debate in both parties, as it touches on issues of conflicts of interest and transparency. Additionally, provisions regarding stablecoin yields continue to be a stumbling block: regulators and lawmakers cannot reach a consensus on how to distribute interest and who should bear responsibility for its payment.
The time factor also plays a crucial role. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks to consider the initiative before the start of the campaign season for the midterm elections. During this period, political activity will inevitably shift toward electoral priorities, making it unlikely that full-fledged debates and a vote on such a complex bill will take place.
From my perspective, the current situation demonstrates a fundamental gap between the pace of development of the crypto industry and the speed of legislative processes in the United States. Even if the CLARITY Act is ultimately not passed this year, its provisions will serve as a foundation for future discussions. However, market participants should not expect a quick clarification of the regulatory environment—the inertia of the political machine and pre-election dynamics will continue to exert pressure on any large-scale initiatives in the digital asset sphere.