Galaxy Digital lowers its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage are estimated at only 10%
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects ongoing disagreements over key aspects of the initiative, which have yet to be resolved at the political level.
The main sticking points remain issues related to ethical standards for government officials, as well as controversial provisions on the distribution of stablecoin yields. These items are sparking active debate among lawmakers, significantly slowing the bill's progress.
Of particular concern is the time factor. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for full consideration and voting on the document. This timeframe is extremely limited, given the upcoming midterm elections, which will inevitably divert politicians' attention away from legislative initiatives.
Under current conditions, even with political will, pushing the bill through all necessary procedures will be extremely difficult. Midterm elections traditionally intensify polarization and reduce willingness to compromise, making the prospects for the CLARITY Act even more uncertain.
From my perspective, such a low probability assessment seems quite justified. Even if the bill gains support in the coming weeks, its final version could be significantly altered under pressure from various political groups. For the market, this means continued uncertainty in stablecoin regulation, which will keep restraining institutional interest in this segment.