Galaxy Digital lowers its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have adjusted their assessment of the prospects for the CLARITY Act legislative initiative in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects ongoing political disagreements that continue to stall the bill's progress, despite its potential significance for regulating the cryptocurrency market.
Key obstacles remain unresolved issues concerning ethical standards for government officials and provisions related to stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking active debate among lawmakers, significantly complicating the achievement of consensus. The issue is further exacerbated by the fact that after parliamentarians return from recess on September 14, they will have extremely limited time—just two to three weeks—to advance the initiative before the midterm elections begin.
The tight timeline adds additional pressure to the legislative process, as the pre-election agenda inevitably diverts senators' attention from the complex technical details of digital asset regulation. In the current situation, even under favorable circumstances, full consideration of the bill seems unlikely.
In my view, such dynamics are quite expected: during the pre-election period, political priorities shift toward more pressing socio-economic topics, while complex regulatory initiatives requiring detailed work are often postponed. Nevertheless, even partial progress in discussing the CLARITY Act could lay the groundwork for more constructive dialogue on crypto regulation in the next Congress, which in the long term matters more than fleeting legislative victories.