Competition will force Russian banks to reduce spreads on cryptocurrency.
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will inevitably begin with inflated spreads, but it will not be possible to maintain a markup of 5–7% or higher amid competitive pressure. Such is my analysis of the current situation, based on assessments by transaction banking and payments expert Victoria Goldenberg.
Why spreads will be high at first, then decline
At the start, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making initial offerings expensive for clients.
However, I do not see long-term sustainability for such spreads. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final price. It will be shaped by the global rate of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the specific bank's margin.
It is important to understand: the Bank of Russia will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but it will not fix buy or sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across banks, especially at the initial stage.
Who will win the race for clients
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity the bank must hold on its balance sheet. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary, although they do affect the final price.
The key success factor is the marketing budget and the willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. This mechanism resembles the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
Today, the mass client is not ready to overpay simply for the word "bank." Since 2022, stress levels in retail have been high: the Russian user agrees to many scenarios just to meet their need, but not to an unjustifiably expensive service.
The picture is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My conclusion: banks that are the first to build reliable liquidity and do not get greedy with spreads will capture a loyal audience. The rest will have to catch up by reducing margins to market levels. The market itself will set priorities, and in this race, victory will go to the most flexible players.