Crypto news

Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the prospects for the CLARITY Act's passage in the U.S. Senate in 2026, lowering the probability of approval to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding digital asset regulation.

Unresolved disagreements on several critically important provisions remain key obstacles. In particular, this concerns ethical standards for government officials who may own cryptocurrencies, as well as controversial rules regarding the distribution of stablecoin yields. These issues are sparking fierce debates both among lawmakers and in lobbying circles, significantly slowing the initiative's progress.

The Time Window Is Narrowing Rapidly

The situation is compounded by an extremely limited time horizon. Lawmakers return from recess on September 14, and before the campaign season kicks off ahead of the midterm elections, the Senate will have only two to three weeks of productive work left. During this period, priorities will shift toward budget matters and politically sensitive topics, making swift and unhindered passage of a complex crypto bill unlikely.

Even under an optimistic scenario, if the CLARITY Act is not brought to a vote within this short window, its consideration will be postponed indefinitely, effectively dashing any hopes for market regulation in the near term. For the industry, this means continued uncertainty and fragmented regulation at the state level.

My take: Lowering the probability to 10% is not just a number but a signal to the market that political will for comprehensive cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. is currently virtually absent. Investors should prepare for a prolonged struggle for regulatory clarity, and under these conditions, the key factor will be not so much federal legislation as the actions of the SEC and judicial precedents.