Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered its forecast for the adoption of the CLARITY Act, with chances now estimated at only 10%.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its passage in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop from previous estimates, reflecting growing uncertainty surrounding the legislative initiative aimed at bringing clarity to digital asset regulation.
Key obstacles remain unresolved political disagreements that continue to stall the document's progress. In particular, two contentious points are at issue: the introduction of strict ethical standards for government officials and complex provisions concerning the distribution of stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking serious debate both among lawmakers and within the industry itself, laying the groundwork for protracted discussions.
The timing factor adds particular urgency to the situation. After senators return from recess on September 14, supporters of the bill will have an extremely narrow window—just two to three weeks—before the active phase of the Congressional election campaign begins. The midterm elections will inevitably shift lawmakers' attention to political battles, leaving virtually no chance for a swift and unhindered vote.
In my view, this dynamic is quite natural. Cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S. has traditionally become a hostage to the political calendar, and the CLARITY Act is no exception. Even if the bill is technically well-crafted, its fate now depends less on its content than on lobbyists' ability to push a vote through within a tight timeframe, which looks unlikely under current conditions.
For the market, this means regulatory uncertainty will persist at least until next year. Investors and industry participants should prepare for the fact that clear rules of the game will not emerge until the new political cycle, and in the meantime—continue to rely on current, often contradictory, regulatory guidance.