Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees are doomed to disappear
The Russian market for bank cryptocurrency operations is just beginning to take shape, and the first steps of players will be accompanied by inflated spreads. However, as an analysis of market dynamics shows, maintaining a margin of 5–7% or higher over the long term will not be possible. Competition will inevitably adjust prices, and this process is already embedded in the logic of the sector's development.
Why the start will be expensive but short-lived
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price of their services: liquidity, compliance, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. These expenses require a return on investment, so the first clients will face a markup of several basis points. However, such an approach is not sustainable. As soon as several large banks and other regulated participants enter the market, the margin will begin to shrink rapidly.
It is important to understand that the spread is not set by the regulator. It is formed from the global price of the asset, the cost of liquidity, infrastructure expenses, and the appetite of a specific bank. The Central Bank of Russia will likely focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not dictate quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the start.
Who will win the battle for the client
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding. Infrastructure and the legal structure are secondary. The key factor will be the marketing budget and the willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy.
The mass client is no longer willing to overpay just for the word "bank." The level of trust in retail financial institutions has noticeably declined since 2022, and the user is open to many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high price. At the same time, affluent clients dealing with sums of 3–5 million rubles are willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The only question is who they will entrust their funds to—their own accountant or a Russian bank. The answer is obvious: the advantage will go to those who can offer competitive service without inflated fees.
My view: The bank cryptocurrency market in Russia will develop along the model of the currency market, not tariff monopolism. Banks that try to maintain spreads at 5–7% will quickly lose clients to more flexible competitors. Within 12–18 months, we will see margins in the range of 1–2%, making services accessible to the mass user.