Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act: only a 10% chance of passage in 2026.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to bring clarity to the regulation of the U.S. cryptocurrency market. The current estimate of its approval by the Senate in 2026 has been lowered to 10%, reflecting growing uncertainty and political tension surrounding the initiative.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disputes over several fundamental aspects. First and foremost, these are ethical standards for government officials, which are causing serious disagreements among lawmakers. In addition, fierce debates are underway over provisions concerning stablecoin yields—this issue has become a stumbling block that has divided both Republicans and Democrats.
The time window for passing the bill is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the start of the election campaign. The midterm elections will inevitably shift lawmakers' attention from regulatory issues to political battles, making the swift advancement of the CLARITY Act highly unlikely.
An additional risk factor is the position of the finance committee, where some influential members express skepticism about the proposed structure of the bill. Without consensus on these key points, the likelihood that the initiative will be brought to a vote before the end of the session remains minimal.
My analytical conclusion: Galaxy Digital's assessment looks realistic, but even 10% may be optimistic. The narrowing time window combined with political polarization around stablecoins makes the CLARITY Act a hostage of the election cycle. The market should prepare for the fact that regulatory clarity in the U.S. will be delayed until at least the next Congress, which could increase volatility at the institutional level.