Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees won't last long
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads, but market competition will quickly correct this situation. No player will be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or higher in an open market.
The key factor that will determine the price for the client is not so much the bank's appetite for profit, but rather the objective cost of liquidity, the willingness of the audience itself to overpay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to traditional fiat transfer channels. At the initial stage, banks will have to factor into their quotes the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure, which will inevitably drive margins up to several basis points.
Why spreads will be high at first, then decline
Elevated spreads at launch are a temporary measure. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. It is important to understand: the final spread is shaped by the market itself, not the regulator. It is composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the specific bank's margin.
The Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks. Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity on the balance sheet.
Who will win the race for the client
The winner will be the one with the larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not just about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers there are and the greater the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass-market client is currently not ready to pay just for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience since 2022 is such that users are willing to accept many scenarios, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, people are willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client will choose not their own accountant, but a Russian bank.
My view: the Russian crypto market awaits a classic "enter expensive, win with volume" model. Banks that can offer a competitive spread within the first few months will capture a loyal audience of affluent clients, while retail will have to wait until margins become truly market-driven.