Galaxy Digital has revised its forecast: the odds of the CLARITY Act in the Senate have dropped to 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have significantly lowered their assessment of the probability of the CLARITY Act passing through the U.S. Senate in 2026 — it now stands at just 10%. This sharp decline compared to previous expectations reflects the growing complexities in the legislative process, which I have been closely monitoring over the past few months.
Key obstacles remain unresolved political contradictions that are stalling the bill's progress. First and foremost, this concerns disputes over ethical standards for government officials — a point that is sparking fierce debates among lawmakers. Additionally, the issue of regulating stablecoin yields is causing serious disagreements: some senators insist on strict restrictions, while others advocate for a more flexible approach that encourages innovation.
The time window for passing the initiative is critically narrowing. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks before the start of the election campaign tied to the midterm elections. Experience shows that during this period, the political agenda shifts toward electoral campaigns, and complex technical bills like the CLARITY Act are often postponed indefinitely.
The situation is compounded by the fact that even under a favorable scenario in the Senate, the bill would need to be reconciled with the House of Representatives, where there are also its own disagreements. In the current political climate, where every initiative in the field of crypto regulation becomes a subject of fierce struggle, the chances of swift adoption look increasingly elusive.
In my view, even this 10% may turn out to be an optimistic estimate. The market is already pricing in regulatory delays, and if the CLARITY Act is not passed by the end of the year, it will create additional uncertainty for institutional investors who were expecting clearer rules of the game in the stablecoin sector. I recommend market participants prepare for a prolonged period of regulatory uncertainty.